Ladbrokes (Bm70)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Fannie Bay
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
There is a strong contingent of horses that prefer to race on or near the lead, which should ensure an honest tempo over the mile. The main speed influences will be those drawn to press forward.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#7 Groundrush is the most likely to lead from the inside draw. Expect #4 Stormfront to press on and sit at its girth. #2 Hettinger will have to do a lot of work from barrier 11 to get across and could be posted three-wide forcing the pace.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#9 Super Famous is drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to take the box seat trail behind the leaders. #3 Siakam (gate 4) and #1 Bon's Your Back (gate 5) should be able to find ideal positions one off the fence, just behind the speed. #8 Crown Waters will also look for a forward spot from gate 7, likely settling in the first half of the field.
🏃♂️Midfield
#5 Seguso (gate 6) and #6 Kangaroo Court (gate 10) are expected to settle in the running line, mid-pack. Kangaroo Court is at risk of being caught wide from its barrier.
🐌Backmarkers
#11 Princess Pancakes draws the extreme outside (12) and will almost certainly be restrained to find cover towards the rear. #10 Tubthumper (gate 9) also typically settles in the second half of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. However, on a tight circuit like Fannie Bay, an inside draw is often an advantage, allowing horses to save crucial ground. Runners who are able to secure a position on or near the fence will have a shorter route home than those forced to travel wide. This map suggests that horses caught three or four wide on the turns will be at a significant disadvantage.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Good 3, indicating a firm and fast racing surface. This will favour horses who can travel comfortably at a genuine tempo and possess a sharp turn of foot. There will be no excuses for lack of fitness, and the conditions are unlikely to assist horses who struggle to quicken. The firm ground will reward on-pace runners who can dictate terms and make it difficult for those at the rear to make up significant ground unless the leaders go too hard.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Fannie Bay 1600m start provides a fair run to the first turn, but it is a tight-turning circuit. This puts an emphasis on securing a good position early to avoid being caught wide, as covering extra ground on the turns is costly. The home straight is not overly long, meaning on-pace runners who can kick strongly off the final bend often hold a distinct advantage over backmarkers who need time and clear running to wind up. An honestly run mile here will be a true test of stamina.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 70 Handicap, with weights from 60.0kg down to 54.0kg. The 6kg spread is significant over 1600m. Topweights like #1 Bon's Your Back, #2 Hettinger, and #3 Siakam will feel their impost, particularly if they are forced to do any extra work in the run due to the genuine pace. The presence of high-profile jockeys like Blake Shinn and Nash Rawiller suggests tactical intent, which reinforces the prediction of a truly run race.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race sets up to be run at a genuine tempo, driven by a number of natural on-pace runners and pressure from wider draws. This honest pace on a firm track will test the stamina of all runners at the mile. The tight-turning nature of Fannie Bay, with the rail True, heavily favours horses drawn to get an economical run on or near the speed. Backmarkers will find it difficult to make an impact unless the leaders overdo it and the field opens up. The race will likely be won or lost based on who gets the most favourable trip in the first 800m.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Groundrush The map could not have unfolded better. Draws low (3), is a natural leader, and won this track/distance last start in the same manner. He gets control of the race, saves ground, and can dictate terms. If Jarrod Todd can rate him well, he will be very hard to run down. #9 Super Famous is also perfectly placed to get the economical box-seat run from barrier 1.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Hettinger Despite his talent, the tactical situation is dire. From barrier 11, he faces a difficult choice: burn significant energy pressing forward three or four wide, or be restrained against his pattern. Either scenario makes him vulnerable late under the 60.0kg top weight, especially in a genuinely run race. #11 Princess Pancakes (barrier 12) is in a similar predicament and will be forced to concede a big start.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly points towards horses that can take up a forward position from a good draw. #7 Groundrush profiles as the runner with the most favourable setup and should be given strong consideration. #9 Super Famous also maps for a perfect, ground-saving trip and could represent value if he gets the splits at the right time. Be very cautious of #2 Hettinger; while he has a top jockey, the barrier and likely race shape present a significant obstacle that may not be reflected in his price. A horse like #4 Stormfront is a key player and can win, but his success is dependent on how much energy he uses to overcome barrier 8 in the early battle for position.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Bon's Your Back
Hettinger
Siakam
Stormfront
Seguso
Kangaroo Court
Groundrush
Crown Waters
Super Famous
Tubthumper
Princess Pancakes
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