Magic Millions Top End Classic (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Fannie Bay
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a genuinely run race due to a convergence of on-pace runners. There are at least four to five horses that prefer to race in the first quartile of the field, creating pressure for forward positions.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#5 Tellez is the most likely to drive across from the wider gate and attempt to take up the running. #3 Bahama Bay has the gate speed and inside draw (2) to challenge for the lead or at least hold the rail in a prominent spot.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This will be a contested zone. #4 Lochlorian maps for a perfect run from barrier 4, likely to settle one-out-one-back or in the box seat. #1 Throw At Da Stumps from gate 3 should enjoy an economical trail just behind the leaders. #2 Down The Wicket will be pushing forward but is at risk of being caught three-wide if unable to slot in. #8 Carat Time will aim for a spot on the fence just behind the lead if it begins on terms from the inside alley.
🏃♂️Midfield
#6 Yaki Ishi draws the widest gate and is likely to be eased to find a position with cover in midfield. #7 Style And Grace has an inconsistent pattern but from the middle gate, is expected to land in a mid-pack position.
🐌Backmarkers
In a field of this size, there are no dedicated backmarkers. However, should #8 Carat Time or #7 Style And Grace miss the start, as they have done previously, they would find themselves at the rear of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. However, the inside paths are the shortest way home, which provides a distinct advantage to horses drawn low that possess enough tactical speed to hold their position. This setup can amplify the advantage for on-pace runners, especially if they can dictate terms without spending too much energy early.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Good 3, which is typical for Darwin and indicates a firm, fast racing surface. This will ensure a true run race where there will be no excuses for any runner regarding the going. It advantages horses who can travel comfortably at a high cruising speed and possess a sharp turn of foot. There is no expected track bias, and the overall time will likely be quick given the predicted pace.
📏Track & Distance Factors
Fannie Bay is a notoriously tight-turning circuit with a relatively short home straight. The 1300m start provides a fair run to the first turn, but it is crucial not to be caught wide. The track's configuration heavily favours horses that can race on the pace, save ground on the turns, and kick strongly at the top of the straight. It is very difficult to make up significant ground from the back.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 64 Handicap, which groups horses of a similar calibre. The weight spread from 60.5kg to 54.0kg is standard and shouldn't be a major factor for the top weights over this distance. The most significant condition is for #5 Tellez, who is on a two-day backup. While this indicates the horse has pulled up well, it can be a test of its constitution, especially if forced to work hard early from a wide gate.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set up for a genuine tempo, driven by #5 Tellez and supported by other on-pace runners. The key to winning will be securing an economical run in transit. Horses caught wide on the tight Fannie Bay circuit will be severely disadvantaged. The strong pace may seem to suit closers, but the short straight makes it difficult to reel in leaders who have had an untroubled run. The race will likely be won by a horse positioned in the first four at the home turn.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Lochlorian appears to get the dream run on the map. From barrier 4, he can settle just off a strong speed battle, conserve energy, and be produced at the top of the straight with every chance. His on-pace pattern is ideal for this track, and he avoids the pressure of leading while still being in a striking position.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#5 Tellez faces a difficult task. Despite strong recent form, the combination of a quick backup, a wide barrier (7), and the need to burn energy to cross and lead makes him vulnerable late. #2 Down The Wicket is also in a precarious position from barrier 6 and could easily be trapped three-wide without cover, a death sentence at Fannie Bay.
💰Betting Considerations
- The map strongly favours horses drawn inside that can take a sit behind the speed. #4 Lochlorian and #1 Throw At Da Stumps fit this profile perfectly and should be given strong consideration as they are set up for ideal, energy-saving runs.
- There is significant risk associated with the likely speed influencers drawn wider, namely #5 Tellez and #2 Down The Wicket. They would need to be at a value price to compensate for the high probability of a difficult run in transit.
- #8 Carat Time is the wildcard from the inside gate. If he jumps on terms, he is a major player. If he is slow away as he was last start, his race is effectively over. He represents a high-risk, high-reward betting proposition.
- Given the genuine pace, look for horses who have demonstrated the ability to kick off a fast tempo, rather than just one-paced leaders. The winner will likely come from the on-pace group that enjoys the softest run.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Throw At Da Stumps
Down The Wicket
Bahama Bay
Lochlorian
Tellez
Yaki Ishi
Style And Grace
Carat Time
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