Schweppes Hcp (62)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 8 at Fannie Bay
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race profiles to have significant early pressure. There are multiple runners who either lead or race on-pace, with several of the key speed influences drawn in wide barriers, which will force their hand.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#2 Dummy Spit is the most likely to kick up from the inside draw and hold the lead. Expect immense pressure from #3 Miami Baby, who must press on from the extreme outside gate. One of these will lead, the other will likely sit outside the leader, potentially three-wide if they can't cross.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This will be a crowded position. #7 Rising Fire is drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to take the coveted box seat. #8 Starton from gate 2 will be right there with it. From wider out, #1 The Girl's Boy, #6 Lean On Me, and #5 Rhesus will all be vying for a position in the first four or five, likely settling one or three wide.
🏃♂️Midfield
#9 Polarising draws well in gate 3 and should secure an ideal run midfield with cover. #11 Starlite Rebel from gate 5 is also mapped to get a comfortable trail in mid-division. #4 Frawley has the difficult task from barrier 11 and will likely be forced to ease back to find cover in a midfield position, albeit wide.
🐌Backmarkers
#12 Valabing has a history of being slowly away and is expected to settle at or near the rear of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. However, on a tight track like Fannie Bay, an inside draw is a distinct advantage as it allows horses to save crucial ground on the turns. Runners drawn wide who fail to cross and find a position near the rail will be forced to cover significantly more distance, which is a major disadvantage, especially if the pace is strong as predicted.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Good 3. With the race held during Darwin's dry season, a firm and fast surface is expected. This will ensure a true tempo and will not offer any excuses. The conditions will not favour any particular running style or track section but will place an emphasis on raw speed and stamina, with no cushion in the ground for horses who may prefer softer going.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1300m start at Fannie Bay offers a reasonable run to the first turn, which gives horses with speed drawn wide a chance to cross. However, Fannie Bay is a notoriously tight-turning track with a relatively short home straight of approximately 340m. This configuration typically favours horses who are on-pace, as it can be very difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground unless the leaders have gone far too hard. The strong tempo predicted here could negate that slightly, but the advantage remains with those saving ground near the lead.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Restricted 62 Handicap, a class where form can be inconsistent. The compressed weight scale (61.0kg to 54.0kg) means that while topweights carry a burden, the differences are not extreme. The high-pressure scenario mapped here will be a genuine test of each horse's ability at the distance and class level, and jockey tactics in the early stages will be paramount.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race dynamic is clear: a high-pressure contest for the lead, driven by several on-pace runners drawn wide. This sets up a fascinating tactical battle. The key to the race will be which runners get the most economical trip. The pace battle is highly likely to compromise the chances of those involved, particularly #3 Miami Baby from the wide gate. This scenario creates a significant advantage for horses drawn inside who can take a sit just behind the speed, conserving energy before launching their claim in the short home straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Rising Fire (7) The map could not have fallen better for this horse. Drawn barrier 1 on a quick backup, it has the tactical speed to use the gate and settle in the perfect position, likely the box seat, directly behind the leaders. As the speed horses who have done the work begin to tire, jockey Paul Shiers should have the option of the inside run, giving it the most economical and strategically superior path to victory. #8 Starton (8) from barrier 2 is in a similarly advantageous position.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Miami Baby (3) Despite being a talented horse, drawing barrier 12 in a race with significant speed drawn inside is a calamitous setup. It will either be forced to do an enormous amount of work to cross and lead, leaving it vulnerable late, or be trapped three or four wide without cover for the entire race. #1 The Girl's Boy (1) and #4 Frawley (4) also face very difficult tasks from their wide alleys.
💰Betting Considerations
Strategic focus should be placed on runners drawn to get an economical run in transit. The high-pressure scenario makes the speed horses drawn wide extremely risky propositions.
- Primary Focus: Horses drawn in barriers 1-5 with tactical speed are the prime targets. #7 Rising Fire, #8 Starton, and #9 Polarising are all mapped to get perfect runs and should be at peak fitness turning for home while others are tiring.
- Value Opportunities: A horse like #11 Starlite Rebel could represent value. From a good draw (5), it can land in a perfect midfield trailing position and may be the one to profit if the on-pace runners go too hard and fall in a heap.
- Risks: It is advisable to be against the key chances drawn wide, specifically #3 Miami Baby (12), #1 The Girl's Boy (10), and #6 Lean On Me (9). While any of them could overcome the map, the probability is that the hard run will tell in the final 100m.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
The Girl's Boy
Dummy Spit
Miami Baby
Frawley
Rhesus
Lean On Me
Rising Fire
Starton
Polarising
Starlite Rebel
Valabing
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