Picnics Race Day October 4 Plate (C1)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Wagga Riverside
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a natural leader in #4 Alpine Rose, drawn wide, ensures a committed press to the front. This will be compounded by pressure from other on-pace runners who will be keen to secure a favourable position and not be caught wide on the testing ground.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#4 Alpine Rose is the most probable leader, forced to use early speed from the wide gate. #9 Lost Ya Sock has the speed to challenge or sit at its girth.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#2 Pride Of Jezza is mapped to get the perfect run in the box seat, stalking the speed from barrier 2. #6 Bomerton will likely have to work across from barrier 8 to find a position one-off-the-rail. #1 Mishima is drawn well in gate 5 to settle just behind the main speed battle, potentially three-back on the rail or with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#5 Flutterby typically settles in the second half of the field and will look for cover mid-pack before launching its run.
🐌Backmarkers
#3 Track And Field is a designated backmarker and from barrier 1 will be shuffled back along the rail, likely settling last or second-last.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 8, the track should play fairly initially. However, as the meeting progresses, the ground closest to the rail is likely to chop up and become inferior. This could disadvantage horses like #3 Track And Field, who is drawn to be on the fence, if a path to the middle or outside of the track is required in the straight. Runners positioned on-pace and slightly wider will have the tactical advantage of choosing the best ground to make their finishing run.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 8 track is the dominant factor. The race will be a true slog, favouring genuine wet-track specialists with proven stamina. The predicted genuine pace will further accentuate this, ensuring that only the strongest horses will be finishing off the race. Horses with poor wet track records are at a significant disadvantage.
- Proven Heavy Performers: #1 Mishima (H8 win), #2 Pride Of Jezza (H10 win), #3 Track And Field (H9 C/D win), #5 Flutterby (H9 placing).
- Queries on Heavy: #4 Alpine Rose (faded on H10), #9 Lost Ya Sock (unplaced H8).
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1675m start at Wagga Riverside provides a fair run to the first turn, allowing a horse with speed like #4 Alpine Rose to cross. However, the track itself is tighter than the main course, with a relatively short run down the back straight before the home turn. On a Heavy 8, this distance becomes a genuine test of stamina. Horses positioned too far back will find it difficult to make up the required ground on the tiring surface, while leaders who go too hard early will be vulnerable in the long, testing home straight.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Class 1 Set Weights race. The weight scale advantages the lightly-weighted runners over the top weights, especially on a Heavy 8 track. #2 Pride Of Jezza and #3 Track And Field must carry 59.0kg, a significant task in these conditions. In contrast, #1 Mishima (56.0kg) and #9 Lost Ya Sock (55.0kg) receive considerable weight relief which could be telling at the finish.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race projects to be run at a genuine tempo, set by #4 Alpine Rose working across from a wide gate. This, combined with the Heavy 8 track, will create a war of attrition. The leaders will be vulnerable late, setting the race up for a strong, proven wet-tracker who can get an economical run just off the speed. The race will likely be won by a horse that travels well and can sustain a long, grinding run from the 400m mark.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Pride Of Jezza has the most favourable map. From barrier 2, it can take a perfect trail behind the speed without spending any energy. It has a recent win on a Heavy 10 at Wagga, confirming its ability in the conditions. Despite the 59kg, the energy saved in the run should allow it to present as a major force in the straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#4 Alpine Rose faces a formidable task. It must burn energy to lead from barrier 9, will set a genuine pace, and has a poor record on heavy ground. It is likely to tire badly in the straight. #3 Track And Field is also disadvantaged by the combination of its back-marker pattern from barrier 1 and the 59kg top weight on a heavy track, which will make it extremely difficult to make up the necessary ground.
💰Betting Considerations
- The map and conditions strongly favour horses with proven heavy track form that can settle just off the speed. #2 Pride Of Jezza is the standout from a tactical perspective.
- Value opportunities could lie with #1 Mishima, who handles the wet, gets in with a handy 56.0kg, and maps to get a good run from barrier 5. Similarly, #5 Flutterby is a proven wet-tracker who will be finishing strongly if the leaders overdo it.
- It is advisable to be against the likely leader, #4 Alpine Rose, given the combination of pace pressure, a wide draw, and poor form on heavy tracks.
- The key betting strategy is to focus on stamina and proven wet-track ability, favouring runners who can take a sit and avoid the early speed battle.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Mishima
Pride Of Jezza
Track And Field
Alpine Rose
Flutterby
Bomerton
Lost Ya Sock
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