Can Assist Family Race Day October 18 (Bm58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Wagga Riverside
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
There are multiple sources of speed and pressure engaged here. #5 Great Week is a natural leader who consistently pushes forward. He is challenged for that role by #9 Goofinator and #11 Crazy Atom, who are both drawn wide and will be forced to press on to avoid being caught deep. This external pressure will ensure there is no easy lead available. Furthermore, horses like #12 Crusheen Lass and #8 Tropicana's Cube possess enough tactical speed to hold prominent positions, contributing to a contested and honest tempo throughout.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#5 Great Week will aim to lead from the good draw but will be challenged strongly by #9 Goofinator and #11 Crazy Atom working across from wider gates. The lead will be keenly contested.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#8 Tropicana's Cube is drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to take the box seat trail behind the speed. #12 Crusheen Lass maps to get an ideal run, sitting one-off-the-rail just behind the leaders from gate 5. #13 Newyork Missile will also look for a forward spot, potentially settling in the running line, possibly three-wide initially.
🏃♂️Midfield
#2 First Day draws to get a soft run midfield along the rail, saving ground. #16 Space Academy projects to settle mid-pack, looking for cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#1 Philadelphia Storm typically settles back in his races. #10 Brie Brie (barrier 16) and #14 Kerma Art (barrier 17) have their positions dictated by their extreme wide draws and will be forced to drop out to the rear of the field to find cover.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 8 track, the inside section could become chopped up and inferior ground by this late stage of the meeting. While saving ground is always beneficial, jockeys may look to shift 2-3 horses off the rail upon straightening to find a better strip of ground. This may slightly offset the advantage of drawing the very inside, but runners who have had an economical run will still hold a tactical advantage over those who have covered extra ground out wide.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 8 rating is a critical factor. This will be a genuine slog over 1800m, placing a premium on stamina and proven wet-track ability. The strong tempo predicted will ensure it becomes a survival of the fittest. Backmarkers will find it extremely difficult to make up ground in the tiring conditions, while leaders who go too hard early will be very vulnerable in the final 200m. Horses with demonstrated form on Heavy tracks (e.g., #12 Crusheen Lass, #10 Brie Brie, #1 Philadelphia Storm) are at a distinct advantage.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1800m start at Wagga Riverside provides a reasonable run down the back straight before the first significant turn. This gives horses drawn wide with speed, like #9 Goofinator and #11 Crazy Atom, a chance to cross and find a position. However, it's a significant energy burn on a Heavy 8 surface. The track is tighter than the main Wagga course proper, with a shorter home straight. This typically favours horses that are on-pace and can kick on the turn, as it can be difficult to make up significant ground from the rear unless the pace completely collapses.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 58 handicap, the field has a wide range of abilities. The pace map appears more reliable than is typical for this grade due to the number of confirmed on-pace runners. The weight scale is important; #1 Philadelphia Storm is burdened with 63.5kg, a significant task for a backmarker on a heavy track. This race will test not only class but the ability to carry weight effectively in testing conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The combination of a strong, contested pace over 1800m on a Heavy 8 track creates a demanding race scenario. It will be a true test of stamina. The race is likely to be won by a horse that can handle the conditions, has had an economical run just off the speed, and can sustain a run through the line. The leaders will set it up for something coming from the first few pairs. Backmarkers drawn wide face an almost impossible task.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Tropicana's Cube (8) This horse maps for a perfect race. From barrier 1, it will do no work, sitting in the box seat behind a strong and contested lead. It handles soft ground and was a last-start winner. Jockey Jake Pracey-Holmes should be able to save all the energy required for the short straight, presenting at the perfect time as the leaders tire.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#9 Goofinator (9), #10 Brie Brie (10) and #14 Kerma Art (14) The wide barriers are crippling. Goofinator must burn significant energy to find a forward spot, leaving it vulnerable late. Brie Brie and Kerma Art are drawn off the map (16 and 17) and will be forced to the tail of the field, a very low-percentage position under these conditions. Additionally, #1 Philadelphia Storm (1) is severely disadvantaged by the 63.5kg top weight on a heavy track.
💰Betting Considerations
- The map strongly favours horses drawn inside that can take a sit. #8 Tropicana's Cube is the standout from a tactical perspective and profiles as a key chance.
- #12 Crusheen Lass also maps beautifully from barrier 5. She is a proven Heavy track winner and can stalk the speed, making her a significant threat.
- #2 First Day is another that gets a favourable run from barrier 3, saving ground midfield, and could represent value if he handles the conditions.
- Be very cautious of runners drawn wide. #9 Goofinator will be on-pace but could be a risk of tiring late due to early work. #10 Brie Brie and #14 Kerma Art face enormous tasks and would need to be far superior to their rivals to overcome their map disadvantage.
- The likely leader, #5 Great Week, is a risk given his recent poor form and the pressure he will face. He is more likely to set the race up for others than win it himself.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Philadelphia Storm
First Day
Great Week
Tropicana's Cube
Goofinator
Brie Brie
Crazy Atom
Crusheen Lass
Newyork Missile
Kerma Art
Space Academy
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