North Ryde RSL Moruya Cup Day Monday 5th January Mdn Hcp
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Moruya
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race lacks significant pressure on paper. The speed map is dominated by one horse, Shoreman, who is a natural leader drawn to perfection. With the majority of the field comprising runners that settle midfield or back, and two debutants who are likely to be ridden conservatively, there are very few candidates to challenge for the lead. The Heavy 9 track condition will also naturally discourage jockeys from burning excessive energy early.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#9 Shoreman is expected to find the lead comfortably from the inside barrier and control the race from the front.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#7 Kool Kade is the most likely to sit outside the leader or settle one-out, one-back. The first-starter #2 Delago Serg draws to get a perfect run in the box seat, trailing the leader on the rail, provided it has enough gate speed.
🏃♂️Midfield
The bulk of the field will settle here. #1 Iconique, #4 Avalon Lady, and #6 Brutal Belle are all likely to be caught in this division, potentially three-wide without cover if they press on from their awkward barriers, or snagged back for a midfield trail. The other first-starter #8 Lerinka will likely be given a conservative ride to find its feet mid-pack.
🐌Backmarkers
#3 Musumeci and #5 Brume De Soliel have patterns that see them settle at the rear of the field and they will be spotting the leaders a significant start.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +3m with a Cutaway is a crucial factor. The cutaway provides fresh ground on the inside for runners turning for home. This is a significant advantage for horses who have saved ground on the fence, as they get a saloon passage up the inside without needing to be angled out into potentially more chopped-up ground. This setup strongly favours the leader, the horse in the box seat, and those trailing on the rail. It is a major disadvantage for horses trapped wide who have to cover more ground on the circle and can't access this faster lane.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Heavy 9 track fundamentally changes the race. The overall tempo will be slower, and the race will become a true test of stamina in the final 400m. Horses must have a proven ability to handle deep, testing ground. Those who can't will falter quickly under pressure. There is a risk of the track chopping out, but the cutaway rail provides an inside lane of fresher ground. It will be a significant advantage for any horse that has previously performed well on Heavy going, such as #4 Avalon Lady and #7 Kool Kade.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1310m start at Moruya is from a chute off the home straight, providing a run of approximately 300m to the first turn. This is generally enough time for horses to find their position. However, on a Heavy 9, this stretch can be punishing for those working hard to cross from wide barriers. The key feature is the relatively short home straight of around 400m. In a moderately run race, this can make it very difficult for backmarkers to make up the required ground, especially when on-pace runners can kick for home at the top of the straight.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Handicap, the form is inherently less reliable than in higher grades. Horses are still learning, and speed maps can be volatile if runners race greenly or miss the start. The two first-starters, #2 Delago Serg and #8 Lerinka, add a major layer of uncertainty to the predicted race shape. However, in a field of non-winners, a horse with a distinct tactical advantage often holds a stronger-than-usual edge.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
All factors point towards a race dominated by the on-pace runners who can handle the wet ground. The predicted moderate tempo, combined with the Heavy 9 track and the significant advantage of the cutaway rail for insiders, creates a scenario that is highly favourable for the leader and those trailing on the fence. Backmarkers and those drawn wide face a formidable task. They will need the pace to be much stronger than anticipated or for the leaders to completely fail in the ground to come into the finish. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark, where position and stamina will be everything.
✅Most Advantaged
#9 Shoreman The map is a dream scenario. He is the clear leader, drawn barrier 1 to save every inch of ground, and will get first use of the cutaway rail. He can dictate a moderate pace to conserve energy and will be extremely difficult to catch if he handles the Heavy 9.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Brutal Belle Drawn barrier 11, this horse is in a very difficult position. From its usual midfield pattern, it will either be forced to cover significant extra ground wide throughout—a death sentence on a Heavy 9—or be restrained to the rear of the field, leaving it with too much to do in a moderately run race. #4 Avalon Lady (10) faces a similar predicament.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on on-pace runners drawn inside barriers.
- #9 Shoreman is the key horse. The race sets up perfectly for him, and his performance will likely depend solely on his ability to handle the Heavy 9 conditions. He presents as the runner to beat based on tactical advantages.
- The first-starter #2 Delago Serg is a major unknown but must be respected purely due to the map. Drawing barrier 2 to sit behind the leader and utilize the cutaway makes it a potential value play if there is any market confidence.
- Horses drawn wide, such as #6 Brutal Belle and #4 Avalon Lady, are significant risks. They would need to be demonstrably superior to the field to overcome the map disadvantage and should be treated with extreme caution.
- The race is unattractive for backmarkers like #3 Musumeci and #5 Brume De Soliel, who are likely to be undone by a moderate tempo.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Iconique
Delago Serg
Musumeci
Avalon Lady
Brume De Soliel
Brutal Belle
Kool Kade
Lerinka
Shoreman
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