AMH Auto Group Moruya Hcp (C2)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Moruya
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is loaded with early pressure. There are two designated leaders who will be forced to work from their barriers. The presence of other on-pace runners drawn wide will ensure there is no opportunity for a cheap lead, setting up a contested and demanding tempo from the outset, which will be amplified by the taxing track conditions.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#4 Artieos and #7 Shelly's Ace are the clear speed influences and are expected to press forward to dispute the lead. Given their barriers, a genuine speed battle is highly probable.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#3 Laguna Seca and #1 A Book Of Days will likely be urged forward from their wide gates to find positions just off the speed, though they risk being caught wide. From the inside, #9 Single Beat can use the good draw (2) to kick up and sit in a trailing position, potentially in the box seat.
🏃♂️Midfield
#5 Giza is perfectly drawn in barrier 3 to enjoy an economical run, settling just behind the speed. #11 Rosy Sue can use barrier 1 to save ground in a similar mid-pack position. #6 Vereeva will likely settle in the second half of the field from its mid-draw.
🐌Backmarkers
#10 Commandoro is a habitual slow starter and will settle near the rear of the field. #12 Amen Brother, with no recent form and a wide gate, is expected to be ridden conservatively and will likely get back.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +3m with a cutaway is a critical factor. While a rail movement can sometimes favour those on pace, the cutaway provides a significant advantage to horses that have saved ground along the inside. It opens up fresh ground on the fence in the straight, allowing horses trailing the speed to get a dream run through without needing to circle the field. This specifically benefits horses drawn in low barriers who can hold a midfield position.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Heavy 9 track will profoundly influence this race. The going will be extremely testing, placing a premium on stamina and proven wet-track ability. The strong early pace will be even more taxing, making the leaders highly vulnerable in the final 200m. Horses that can travel comfortably and conserve energy will be at a distinct advantage. Any on-pace runner that is not a genuine wet-tracker will struggle to finish the race off. The inside might chop out, but the cutaway rail mitigates this by providing a fresh lane.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1020m at Moruya is a sharp sprint where on-pace runners are typically favoured. The run to the first turn is not extensive, meaning horses drawn wide without high early speed are at a significant risk of being caught deep. The short home straight further compounds this, making it difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground, particularly on a heavy surface. The predicted strong tempo will ensure this is a true test of stamina over the short course.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Class 2 Handicap, form can be inconsistent. However, the presence of established front-runners provides more confidence in the speed map. The handicap weights will play a role on the Heavy 9 surface; the top weight, #1 A Book Of Days (60.0kg), faces a significant challenge under these conditions, especially from a wide barrier.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a strong, potentially unsustainable tempo on a very heavy track. The leaders, #4 Artieos and #7 Shelly's Ace, will ensure a true gallop but are at high risk of tiring late due to the early pressure and taxing conditions. This scenario perfectly sets the race up for a horse that can take a sit just off the speed, conserve energy, and utilise the cutaway rail in the straight. Proven ability on heavy ground is non-negotiable.
✅Most Advantaged
#5 Giza (3) is tactically in the perfect position. The strong pace is ideal for its midfield pattern. It is drawn perfectly in barrier 3 to get an economical run, saving ground on the fence. Its recent third on a Heavy 9 at Goulburn confirms its ability in these conditions. With the cutaway rail offering an inside passage in the straight, Chad Lever can wait for the leaders to tire and present Giza for a winning run.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 A Book Of Days (11) faces a monumental task. It must carry the top weight of 60.0kg on a Heavy 9 track, is drawn the widest barrier, and will be forced to either work hard early or cover significant extra ground. This combination of factors makes it extremely difficult. The leaders, #4 Artieos (7) and #7 Shelly's Ace (9), are also disadvantaged by the combination of a high-pressure speed battle and the heavy track, which is likely to nullify their early speed late in the race.
💰Betting Considerations
This race profiles as one where it is wise to bet against the early leaders. The combination of strong pressure and a Heavy 9 track is a recipe for front-runners to falter. The value lies with runners who can take a trail and have proven form in the wet.
- Primary Focus: Horses drawn low (barriers 1-4) with demonstrated wet-track credentials. #5 Giza is the standout map horse. #9 Single Beat (2) also draws to get a perfect run and has a win on soft ground.
- Risk: #4 Artieos and #7 Shelly's Ace are likely to be prominent in early markets due to their speed, but they represent a significant risk of being "found out" late.
- Value Opportunities: Look for horses like #10 Commandoro to be running on into the placings at longer odds. The strong tempo suits its closing style, though winning from that far back on a heavy track will be a challenge. The key betting angle is identifying the horse best poised to exploit the cutaway rail after a high-pressure gallop.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
A Book Of Days
Laguna Seca
Artieos
Giza
Vereeva
Shelly's Ace
Single Beat
Commandoro
Rosy Sue
Amen Brother
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