Tyre Torque Batemans Bay Country Boosted Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Moruya
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a moderate tempo, primarily dictated by the Heavy 9 track condition, which will naturally prevent a high-pressure gallop. There is only one designated leader in the field, with a couple of others who can sit handy.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#8 Vivek is the most probable leader. Expect #3 C'mon Wicksy to press forward from the wide gate and potentially sit outside the lead, though this will require significant early effort.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#13 Tip A Hat is drawn ideally to take the box seat or sit one-out, one-back. #12 Sawmill has the tactical versatility from barrier 7 to land in a forward-of-midfield position with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
This will be the most congested part of the field. #4 Comb Over Con draws perfectly in gate 2 to get an economical run midfield on the rail. #5 Feedback, #7 Rawano, and #9 Bon River will all be looking for similar positions, likely settling mid-pack, with those drawn wider risking a three-wide trip.
🐌Backmarkers
#1 Bengello Boy and #6 Oh Kelly are almost certain to settle near the rear, compounded by their wide barriers. #10 Casino Shaw has been slow away recently and from barrier 1 will likely be buried on the fence at the tail of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +3m with a cutaway is a critical factor. The cutaway rail, which applies from the 380m mark, will open up the inside section of the track in the straight. On a heavy track, where the inside can be inferior ground, this provides a fresh lane for horses who have saved ground along the rail. This is a significant advantage for runners drawn low who can maintain a midfield or better position, as they get an economical run and then have access to a potential fast lane in the straight.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 is the single most defining feature of this race. It will turn the 1435m into a genuine test of stamina.
- Pace: The heavy going will naturally slow the overall tempo and make it extremely difficult for leaders to sustain a high speed.
- Bias: While the cutaway provides an inside option, the best ground might still be found several lanes off the rail in the straight as the meeting progresses. Horses that can find that slightly better going will have an advantage.
- Suitability: Proven wet-track performers are at a massive advantage. Any horse without demonstrated form on heavy or very soft ground is a major risk. Sustaining a long run from the back will be incredibly tough; fitness and an ability to handle the conditions will be paramount.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1435m start at Moruya provides a fair run of approximately 400m to the first turn, which allows horses drawn wide some opportunity to find a position. However, on a Heavy 9 surface, any extra ground covered is magnified. The energy spent early will be costly at the finish. The Moruya straight is not exceptionally long, meaning backmarkers will need to be making their move before the turn and can't afford to give the leaders too much of a start, which will be difficult on this testing ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Plate, the form is inherently less reliable than in graded races. Runners are inexperienced and can be unpredictable in their racing patterns and ability to handle pressure. The set-weights condition means that horses are not penalised for strong performances, allowing the most naturally talented galloper (especially one who handles the wet) to excel.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race will be run at a moderate tempo on a sapping Heavy 9 surface, led by #8 Vivek. The key tactical element will be the cutaway rail, favouring those who can get an economical run on or near the fence without being buried behind tiring horses. The race will not be won by a brilliant turn of foot, but by strength, stamina, and an ability to plough through the heavy ground. Horses caught wide without cover will be at a severe disadvantage.
✅Most Advantaged
#12 Sawmill profiles perfectly for this race. He has placed on Soft 7 going and his last two runs for second place were full of merit, indicating he is at peak fitness. From the mid-draw (7), jockey Louise Day can assess the speed and land in a perfect striking position, one-off with cover. He has the tactical versatility to not be dictated to and will be strong at the end of a testing 1435m.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 C'mon Wicksy faces a monumental task from barrier 12. He must either burn energy to cross and sit on a moderate pace—a tough ask on a Heavy 9—or be caught three or four wide without cover, which is a near-impossible scenario from which to win. #6 Oh Kelly faces a similar predicament from barrier 13.
💰Betting Considerations
- The Heavy 9 track is the first and last filter. Prioritise horses with proven ability on genuinely rain-affected ground. #12 Sawmill and #5 Feedback have both placed on heavy tracks.
- The cutaway rail brings horses drawn inside into play. #4 Comb Over Con (barrier 2) and #13 Tip A Hat (barrier 4) are well-positioned to take advantage of this, provided they can hold a spot in the running line.
- The likely leader, #8 Vivek, has faded after leading in his last two starts on better surfaces. The step up in distance on a Heavy 9 makes him look very vulnerable in the final 200m.
- Given the predicted moderate pace, it will be difficult for pure backmarkers like #1 Bengello Boy and #10 Casino Shaw to make up the required ground unless the on-pace runners completely stop.
- #12 Sawmill appears to have the ideal blend of recent form, tactical versatility, and wet-track credentials to be the horse to beat based on the map and conditions.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Bengello Boy
C'mon Wicksy
Comb Over Con
Feedback
Oh Kelly
Rawano
Vivek
Bon River
Casino Shaw
Sawmill
Tip A Hat
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