SCB Distributors Legend Of The South October 3rd Country Boosted (Bm66)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Moruya
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a dominant, specialist leader in **#2 Epaullo Creed** ensures a true tempo from the outset. Pressure is likely to be applied by several on-pace runners drawn in middle to wide gates who will need to push forward to secure a position. This combination will prevent the leader from getting a soft sectional and will ensure a genuinely run race, which will be even more taxing on the Heavy 9 surface.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#2 Epaullo Creed is the clear-cut leader and will dictate terms from the front.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#8 Gorush Lightning and #11 Dolzino will be prominent after pushing forward from their wide gates. #12 Own Them is drawn ideally in barrier 4 to kick up and hold a prime position, potentially the box seat, just behind the leader. #3 Dubai Centre can use his tactical versatility from barrier 6 to land in a one-one or three-back position. #9 Acheson is a wildcard from the wide gate (13); he has the speed to press forward but may be snagged back to find cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#7 Vermicella draws perfectly in barrier 5 to enjoy an economical run with cover in mid-pack. #5 Almost Persuaded (14) and #10 Fifty Five Mustang (11) will likely be restrained from their wide barriers to find a spot midfield, albeit potentially wide with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#4 Field Marshal typically settles in the second half of the field and is likely to be ridden quietly from his inside draw, saving ground along the rail. #14 Ulysses Blue is a natural backmarker who will settle at or near the tail of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m and a Cutaway in play, the inside section of the home straight will provide fresh ground. This is a major tactical advantage for horses that have saved ground along the rail. Runners in the box seat (like #12 Own Them) or those tracking midfield on the fence (like #4 Field Marshal or potentially #7 Vermicella) will have access to this prime lane, which can be a race-winning advantage on a chopped-up heavy track. It partially negates the risk of being stuck on the fence.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the dominant factor. This will be a slog.
- Pace: The genuine tempo will feel more like a strong, high-pressure race due to the testing ground. Horses without proven heavy track form or those suspect at the distance will struggle to finish off.
- Bias: The Cutaway rail provides an inside advantage, but if the track is heavily worn, jockeys may still angle wider in the straight searching for firmer footing. The race will favour tough, fit horses who have demonstrated a clear ability to handle deep, wet ground.
- Closers vs Leaders: The conditions will make it very difficult for the leader, #2 Epaullo Creed, to sustain his effort. This sets the race up for strong, proven wet-trackers coming from just off the speed or midfield who have conserved energy.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1435m start at Moruya provides a fair run to the first turn, which gives on-pace horses drawn wide a chance to cross. However, a sustained effort will be required. The genuine pace predicted will make this a true test of stamina over the distance, especially on the heavy surface. The Moruya straight is long enough for backmarkers to make a run, but they will need the leaders to have gone too hard and be tiring significantly.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 66 Handicap, horses are weighted according to their recent form and rating. The top weights, #3 Dubai Centre and #4 Field Marshal (63.0kg), will find their tasks made more difficult by the Heavy 9 track, where every extra kilo feels like more. This brings lighter-weighted horses who handle the conditions right into contention.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race will be defined by the clash between the designated leader, #2 Epaullo Creed, and the pressure from wider-drawn on-pacers on a bottomless Heavy 9 track. This sets up a scenario where stamina and wet-track prowess will be decisive. The Cutaway rail offers a significant advantage to those drawn to save ground. The speed map suggests that horses positioned midfield with cover, ready to pounce on the tiring leaders, are in the prime tactical position.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Vermicella (5) The map looks ideal. She draws barrier 5 to land in a perfect midfield position, saving energy while a genuine pace unfolds ahead. Her last-start second was at this track on a Soft 7, and critically, she has a placing on a Heavy 10 at Warwick Farm, proving her credentials in the most testing conditions. She can be produced in the straight and will be strong late when others are faltering.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#11 Dolzino (12) This on-pace galloper is dealt a very difficult hand. From barrier 12, he will be forced to expend considerable energy to find a forward position. On a Heavy 9 track, doing this early work is often a death knell, leaving a horse vulnerable over the final 300m. He is likely to be caught wide without cover or used up a-plenty, making it extremely tough to finish the race off. #5 Almost Persuaded (14) is in a similar predicament from the extreme outside barrier.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Focus: Unwavering commitment to horses with proven form on Heavy tracks is essential. The Heavy 9 will sort out the swimmers from the sinkers.
- Map Horses: The Cutaway rail makes horses drawn to get an inside run highly appealing. #7 Vermicella maps for a perfect run. #12 Own Them from barrier 4 also gets a chance to utilize this advantage from an on-pace position.
- Risk Assessment: Be very cautious of the on-pacers drawn wide, specifically #11 Dolzino and #9 Acheson. The energy they must use early will likely compromise their finish. The leader, #2 Epaullo Creed, is also a risk; while he'll give a sight, holding on in these conditions will be a monumental effort.
- Value: The value likely lies with the stalkers. A horse like #3 Dubai Centre, despite the weight, is in strong form and maps to get a good trail. He could represent value if the focus is purely on the lighter-weighted runners. The key is identifying the fittest horse that handles the ground and gets an economical run.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Epaullo Creed
Dubai Centre
Field Marshal
Almost Persuaded
Vermicella
Gorush Lightning
Acheson
Fifty Five Mustang
Dolzino
Own Them
Ulysses Blue
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