Turlinjah Park Equestrian Centre (Bm58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Moruya
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The speed map lacks multiple high-pressure leaders. The most likely scenario involves a contest for the lead between one horse drawn wide and one drawn inside, which should result in a manageable tempo, especially on the testing Heavy 9 surface.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#15 Zaxton is expected to push forward from his wide alley to take control. #12 Golden Fairy will use the inside barrier to kick up and will either hold the lead or take the ideal trail in the box seat directly behind.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#6 Soul Taker is perfectly drawn in barrier 3 to land in a beautiful spot, one out and one back or trailing the leader. #4 Easement and #8 Region Time draw well in 4 and 5 respectively and should settle just off the speed, poised to strike.
🏃♂️Midfield
This group will be led by #1 Peruno, who will likely have to settle three-wide with cover from the awkward gate. #14 Spurline should find a spot on the fence from barrier 2, saving ground. #13 Greatestofease and #9 Jalmari will likely settle mid-pack, navigating from their middle draws.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Arancione, #7 Fairness Is Best, and #16 Go Gazza all draw wide and have racing patterns that suggest they will be restrained early to settle at or near the rear of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +3m with a cutaway is a crucial factor. The cutaway provides fresh ground on the inside part of the track upon straightening. This significantly advantages horses drawn low who can save ground throughout the race and then access these "fast lanes." Runners like #12 Golden Fairy (1), #14 Spurline (2), and #6 Soul Taker (3) are positioned to gain the maximum benefit from this track setup, provided they have the horse underneath them to accelerate into the clear ground. It makes being trapped wide particularly disadvantageous.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most dominant factor in this race. The 1660m will feel more like 1800m+, placing a premium on stamina and proven ability in bottomless ground. The overall pace will be naturally slower, which can sometimes help on-pace runners who can handle the conditions to kick away from tiring rivals. Horses with big weights like #1 Peruno (61.5kg) face a monumental task. The track is likely to be chopped up, and finding the best going in the straight will be key. Proven heavy trackers like #15 Zaxton (Heavy 10 winner) and #1 Peruno (Heavy 8 winner) have a distinct class edge if they get the right run.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1660m start at Moruya provides a reasonable run down the back straight before the long, sweeping home turn. This configuration gives horses with gate speed, even from wide barriers like #15 Zaxton, a fair opportunity to cross and find a position without being posted deep for the entire race. The long home straight typically gives all runners a chance, but on a Heavy 9, it will be a gruelling test of stamina, potentially favouring those who have had an economical run on or near the pace.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 58 handicap, the field is comprised of horses with inconsistent form. The weight scale is designed to level the playing field, but on a Heavy 9 track, weight can be a significant leveller. Lighter-weighted horses who can handle the going, such as #12 Golden Fairy (53kg) and #8 Region Time (54.5kg), receive a tangible advantage over the top weights. Jockey experience in these conditions can also play a pivotal role.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is projected to be run at a moderate tempo, dictated by #15 Zaxton and #12 Golden Fairy. The Heavy 9 track will ensure a true test of stamina, and the cutaway rail will provide a significant advantage to horses who have saved ground on the inside. The combination of a moderate pace and testing ground suggests that on-pace runners or those positioned just behind the speed who genuinely handle the wet will be strongly favoured. It will be extremely difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground in the home straight unless the leaders overdo it, which appears unlikely. The race will likely be won or lost based on who handles the Heavy 9 best and who gets the most economical run.
✅Most Advantaged
#12 Golden Fairy (12) maps for a perfect race. From barrier 1 with only 53kg, she can land in the lead or the box seat without spending any petrol. She will have direct access to the cutaway rail in the straight, giving her the freshest ground. If she handles the Heavy 9, she gets every conceivable tactical advantage.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 Peruno (1) faces an enormous task. The combination of the top weight of 61.5kg on a Heavy 9 track and the horror draw of barrier 14 makes his job incredibly difficult. He will either be forced to do a lot of work early or be caught extremely wide throughout. #2 Arancione and #7 Fairness Is Best are similarly disadvantaged by wide gates and big weights or poor recent form.
💰Betting Considerations
Strategic focus should be on horses with proven form on heavy tracks who have drawn well. The cutaway rail makes inside barriers gold-plated in this contest. Horses like #12 Golden Fairy, #6 Soul Taker, and #4 Easement all map to get economical runs near the speed and are positioned to exploit the inside going in the straight. The risk with backmarkers like #2 Arancione and #16 Go Gazza is high, as the likely moderate pace and testing ground will make it tough to reel in the leaders. #15 Zaxton is a key player due to his likely role as leader and proven heavy track credentials, but the wide draw is a slight query. The value may lie with a horse like #8 Region Time, who draws well, has a light weight, and consistently puts himself in the race.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Peruno
Arancione
Easement
Soul Taker
Fairness Is Best
Region Time
Jalmari
Golden Fairy
Greatestofease
Spurline
Zaxton
Go Gazza
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