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Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Rockhampton
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map lacks a multitude of designated front-runners. The primary speed influences appear to be Tennyson Miss from the inside gate and the consistent on-pacer Desarae Doll. With a small field and several runners who prefer to get back, there is a high probability the leaders can dictate terms without facing significant pressure. - **#6 Tennyson Miss:** From barrier 1, has shown the tactical speed to push up and hold a forward position, and is the most likely leader. - **#4 Desarae Doll:** Consistently races on the speed. From barrier 6, Ryan Wiggins will likely press forward to sit outside the lead or take it up if Tennyson Miss is sluggish away. - **#5 Pleasepleaseplease:** The main query. Fresh off a 1000m placing, could show speed from the wide gate, but is more likely to seek a position with cover just off the pace rather than engage in a speed battle.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +0.5m, it is effectively in the True position. For a track rated Soft 5, this typically means the ground closest to the rail is the freshest and potentially quickest path, especially early in the race meeting. This should provide an advantage to horses drawn inside who possess the tactical speed to hold their position, such as #6 Tennyson Miss.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 5 rating introduces a stamina test. The surface will be forgiving but will ensure a solid 1200m test, potentially dulling the finishing sprint of some runners. Horses that have to do extra work early from wide gates or those making long, sustained runs from the back will be disadvantaged. Runners with proven form on rain-affected ground are at a distinct advantage. A moderate tempo on this surface will make it particularly challenging for backmarkers to make up the required ground on leaders who have had a comfortable run.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Rockhampton 1200m start provides a decent run down the back straight before a single, sweeping home turn. This configuration gives jockeys ample opportunity to find a position without being rushed. The key feature is the very long home straight (approx. 600m), which, in theory, allows backmarkers every chance to make up ground. However, if the pace is moderate as predicted, on-pace runners can kick away at the top of the straight and be difficult to run down.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a 3yo Maiden Handicap, which brings an element of unpredictability. Horses are still developing their racing craft, and established patterns can sometimes change unexpectedly. Jockeys may be instructed to be more conservative on inexperienced horses. The handicap conditions mean weights are compressed, giving no single horse a significant weight advantage or disadvantage.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a moderate tempo, heavily favouring runners who can settle in the first four positions without spending too much energy. The long Rockhampton straight is the only saving grace for the backmarkers, but they will need the on-pace runners to either go too quickly or for the track to be playing in a way that allows for swoopers to make ground easily. Given the map, the race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark, favouring those already in a striking position.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Desarae Doll. She maps to get a perfect run. From barrier 6, she can roll forward under her own steam to sit on-pace, likely outside the leader. This keeps her out of trouble and allows her to control the race alongside Tennyson Miss. Her consistent on-pace pattern and recent form suggest she is ideally placed to strike at the top of the long straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Nordic Invader. His get-back racing style is a major tactical negative in a race with a predicted moderate pace. He will likely spot the leaders a significant margin turning for home, and making up that deficit on a Soft 5 track against horses who have had an easier run will be an immense task. #2 Viking Sun and #7 Dubble Hussle face a similar predicament.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly points towards on-pace runners. Bets should be structured around the horses that map to be in the front half of the field.
- Primary Focus: #4 Desarae Doll projects to get the ideal tactical run and is the horse to beat based on the map. #6 Tennyson Miss is also a key chance, benefiting greatly from the inside barrier, and should be right there at the finish.
- Value/Exotics: #8 Luna Ready is tactically versatile and draws a good gate (4). If Adin Thompson can have her settled closer to the speed than in her last two starts, she could get a perfect trail into the race and offer value. #1 Better Storm also draws for an economical run and could hit the board at odds.
- Risks: The backmarkers #3 Nordic Invader, #2 Viking Sun, and #7 Dubble Hussle are poor propositions given the likely race shape. They require a faster-than-expected tempo to be a winning chance and should be opposed.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Better Storm
Viking Sun
Nordic Invader
Desarae Doll
Pleasepleaseplease
Tennyson Miss
Dubble Hussle
Luna Ready
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