Great Northern Mdn Hcp
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Rockhampton
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is loaded with horses who either lead or race on-pace, several of whom are drawn wide and will be forced to press forward. This combination points towards a strong tempo from the outset. - **#8 Richboy Harry:** A natural, fast leader who will almost certainly push forward from gate 9 to find the front. - **#3 Ten Carat Lucy:** Showed speed to lead a recent trial and is drawn the widest gate (12). Has little option but to burn early to cross the field and avoid being trapped deep. - **#5 Sheeza Fling:** Has good gate speed and the ideal draw in barrier 2 to contest the lead or sit right on the speed without doing much work.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +0.5m, it is in a near-True position. This should ensure fair racing across the track, but at Rockhampton, the inside lanes are typically the shortest and most efficient route. Given the short run to the turn, an inside draw is a distinct advantage, allowing horses to save ground while others are forced to cover extra distance. There is unlikely to be a significant track bias away from the rail on a Soft 5.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft 5, indicating it will have some give. This will ensure a fair test of stamina, especially for those involved in the early speed battle. Horses who have previously performed on soft or heavy ground will be at an advantage. The surface may make it slightly more challenging for backmarkers to make up a large deficit in the straight, potentially favouring those racing on-pace who can kick strongly off the turn.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1050m start at Rockhampton is from a chute and features a relatively short run to the first and only turn. This puts immense pressure on horses drawn in wide barriers, as they have limited time to either find the lead or slot in for cover. Being caught wide around this turn is a significant disadvantage. The home straight is fair, but a tough run early often tells on runners late. This course and distance heavily favour horses with good gate speed who have drawn inside barriers.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Maiden Handicap, a crucial factor for a speed map. The form can be unreliable, and horses are prone to inexperience, as evidenced by numerous stewards' reports mentioning awkward starts, racing greenly, and interference. This adds a layer of unpredictability to the map. A high-pressure scenario is common in maiden sprints as jockeys try to find a forward position for their inexperienced mounts, which aligns with the predicted strong tempo.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race projects to be run at a strong tempo, dictated by speedsters #8 Richboy Harry and #3 Ten Carat Lucy pushing forward from wide gates. This early pressure over 1050m with a short run to the turn is the defining feature of the race. The leaders who do the early work will be vulnerable in the final 100m on the soft ground. The race is set up perfectly for a horse that can secure an economical, trailing run just behind this speed duel.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 I'm Number One The map could not have fallen better. From barrier 1, it has the tactical speed to hold a position and is drawn to land in the coveted box seat, directly behind the leaders. It will do no work in the run and gets the first opportunity to pounce if the leaders tire.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Ten Carat Lucy A lightly raced maiden drawn the car park in barrier 12 over this track and distance is a horror scenario. It must be used up significantly to cross the field, a task that is often beyond more seasoned horses, let alone a maiden. #1 Moochi Starlight (11) and #8 Richboy Harry (9) also face difficult tasks from their wide alleys.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Focus: Identify runners mapped to get a soft run just off a hot pace. The "box seat" or "one-out, one-back" positions are gold here.
- Advantaged Runners: #7 I'm Number One gets the A-grade map and should be given strong consideration if its form is deemed good enough. #5 Sheeza Fling also maps for a perfect run from barrier 2, either leading or trailing, and is a key contender.
- Risks: Be very cautious of the wide-drawn speed horses, #3 Ten Carat Lucy and #8 Richboy Harry. The energy they expend early will make them highly vulnerable late. They are potential "lay" or "bet against" candidates.
- Value Opportunities: A horse like #12 Zaboog could represent value. It has the speed to get across into a handy position (perhaps three-wide with cover) and might be a bigger price than those drawn inside, despite having a similar on-pace profile. Backmarkers like #10 Fruit Tingle need everything to go right but could be a blowout chance if the track is playing to closers and the pace completely collapses.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Moochi Starlight
Ten Carat Lucy
Kobe Ascot
Sheeza Fling
Powerchute
I'm Number One
Richboy Harry
Ange
Fruit Tingle
Poppy's Pride
Zaboog
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