Bill Tilley Member for Benambra Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Wodonga
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
There are multiple runners who have shown tactical speed and are drawn wide, which will force a strong tempo. The pressure for forward positions is likely to be significant from the outset.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead will be hotly contested. #8 Above Me and #15 Youarenotalone appear the most likely to push hard from their wide gates. #3 Da Plane Da Plane has the speed and the better draw (4) to potentially hold the lead or sit directly outside the leader.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#7 With Strength is drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to take the box-seat trail directly behind the speed. #9 Inkaantoon from gate 5 can land in an ideal one-out, one-back position. #10 Mystic Rapture will likely be forced to sit wide but on the pace due to its barrier.
🏃♂️Midfield
#11 Midnight Eagle (from 3) and #12 Tallingas Indirose (from 8) are expected to settle in the middle of the pack, likely with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#16 Upinthecity has a consistent pattern of being slowly away and will almost certainly settle at or near the rear of the field. #5 Hidden Bay, with limited race exposure, is also likely to be in the second half of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail True for the main part of the circuit, the inside section of the track will provide the shortest route home. On a Soft 7 track, this inside ground can become worn and chopped up as the meeting progresses, potentially disadvantaging horses hard up against the rail in the straight. An inside draw is a distinct advantage for a horse like #7 With Strength who can use it to gain a perfect, energy-saving run behind the leaders early in the race.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 7 rating is a critical factor. It will place a premium on race fitness and a horse's ability to handle rain-affected ground. The strong early pace will be even more taxing in these conditions, making leaders and those who work hard early extremely vulnerable in the final 200m. Horses with proven form on soft or heavy tracks hold a significant advantage. Runners like #7 With Strength, #8 Above Me, and #9 Inkaantoon have all placed on rain-affected going and should be well-suited.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1100m start at Wodonga offers a fair run to the first turn, but the home straight is relatively short (~350m). This typically favours horses positioned on-pace, as making up significant ground from the back can be difficult. However, the predicted strong tempo could negate this advantage, as the leaders may tire, allowing those who have had a softer run to finish over the top. The key will be finding a balance between being close enough on the turn without spending too much energy early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Plate, the field consists of inexperienced horses, which can lead to unpredictable racing patterns. However, several runners in this field have established on-pace tendencies, giving a higher degree of confidence in the pace prediction. The set-weights condition means proven ability and fitness are key, rather than weight advantages. The race will be a true test of which horse can best handle the combination of high pressure and a testing track surface.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine to strong tempo, dictated by several on-pace runners drawn wide who must press forward. This high-pressure scenario on a Soft 7 track will create a test of stamina and tractability. Leaders will find it very difficult to sustain their effort to the finish line. The race is therefore likely to favour a horse that can obtain an economical run just off the speed and has demonstrated proficiency on wet ground. The race will likely develop into a battle of the fittest from the top of the straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 With Strength (2). This horse maps for a perfect race. Drawn in barrier 2, it can take a sit directly behind the hot speed battle, saving crucial energy. Its recent form is solid and includes a placing on a Soft 7 track. This setup gives it the prime opportunity to peel out in the straight and run down the tiring leaders.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#15 Youarenotalone (17). The barrier is the killer. To get anywhere near the lead, which its last start suggests is the intention, it will have to do a significant amount of work. On a Soft 7 track, this early energy expenditure is almost certain to leave it with nothing left for the finish. #10 Mystic Rapture (11) and #8 Above Me (10) are also disadvantaged by their wide draws and will need to be well-ridden to avoid being caught wide or using too much petrol early.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly suggests that runners who are forced to work hard early from wide gates are vulnerable and potentially worth betting against. The ideal candidate for a win bet is a horse that maps to get a soft run and has proven wet track credentials.
- Primary Strategy: Focus on horses that can take a trail. #7 With Strength is the standout from a mapping perspective. #9 Inkaantoon also maps well from barrier 5 and has strong heavy track form, making it a key contender.
- Value/Exotics: The strong pace and testing track bring backmarkers into the calculations for exotic bets (trifectas, first fours). #16 Upinthecity, despite its pattern of being slow away, ran on well for third on a Soft 7 last start and could do so again here at likely good odds as others tire.
- Risk: Avoid being drawn into the on-pace runners from wide gates unless you have a strong reason to believe they possess a class edge. The race shape is set up against them.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Da Plane Da Plane
Hidden Bay
With Strength
Above Me
Inkaantoon
Mystic Rapture
Midnight Eagle
Tallingas Indirose
Youarenotalone
Upinthecity
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.