Sam Miranda Wines (Bm58)

With the rail out 3m from the 1800m to the 1500m (covering the home turn), the field will be steered slightly away from the inside section. On a Soft 7 track, this can be an advantage, as it may guide runners to a less-worn part of the course. Jockeys will likely be looking for the superior ground in the straight, which could be several lanes off the fence, potentially giving an advantage to those who can peel wide with momentum over those saving ground on the potentially inferior inside going.

The Soft 7 rating is critical. This will turn the 2050m into a genuine test of stamina. Horses that are forced to do work early, particularly those under big weights, will be highly vulnerable in the final 200m. The conditions place a premium on proven wet-track form and fitness. Runners who cannot handle soft ground will be uncompetitive. It makes it harder for horses to produce a dynamic turn of foot, favouring strong, grinding types over brilliant sprinters. Backmarkers will need the pace to be genuine to tire out the leaders, as making up ground on genuinely soft going requires a sustained effort.

The 2050m start at Wodonga offers a long run down the back straight before the first significant turn. This configuration is advantageous for horses drawn wide with speed, like #15 Think More and #1 Quamby, as it provides ample time to cross over and find a position without being trapped wide on a corner. However, the energy expended to do so over this staying trip on a wet track is a major consideration. The long home straight is generally considered fair and will give all runners their chance, but the testing ground may make it difficult for backmarkers to make up extensive ground.

As a Benchmark 58 handicap, this race features a field of moderately performed and often inconsistent horses. The top weight, #1 Quamby, is burdened with 62.5kg, a significant impost on a soft track, especially given the likely work it must do from the wide barrier. This weight penalty could be the decisive factor in its ability to finish the race off. The lower class of race can also lead to more unpredictable pace scenarios, though the map here looks relatively clear.