Frequently asked
The short answers to what HoofMetrics is, how the models work, and how to read the numbers.
What is HoofMetrics?
A data and modeling desk for Australian thoroughbred racing. We run statistical models over each day's meetings and publish what they are backing, then settle and track every selection in an open results ledger. Think of it as the analysis a professional syndicate runs — published in the open.
Is it free?
Yes. The daily model picks, the full results ledger, the Stats Hub and our Field Notes are all free to read. We would rather earn trust by showing our work.
Are these betting tips?
No. We publish model analysis and the data behind it so you can make your own informed decisions. Nothing on HoofMetrics is betting or financial advice, and nothing guarantees a profit. Please see our responsible play page.
How are the picks chosen?
Each model produces a fair price for every runner, we compare it to the market to find an edge, and then a set of filters (model rank, jockey form, field entropy and positive expected value) decides which selections qualify as plays. The full path is on the methodology page.
What do “edge”, “fair” and “entropy” mean?
Fair is the price our model thinks a runner is genuinely worth. Edge is how much better the market price is than fair — the value gap. Entropy measures how open a race is: low entropy means a clear-ish race, high entropy means a scramble where any read is less reliable.
How is the results ledger calculated?
Every qualifying selection is settled as a flat $1 win bet at the starting price (SP), with a daily stop-loss to cap downside. We record outlay, return, profit, win rate and ROI per model. Losing days are shown alongside winning ones — no cherry-picking.
Why do some days show no plays?
On a given day a model may find nothing that clears its filters, or the day's stop-loss may have been reached. A quiet day is a feature of the discipline, not a gap in the data.
What about the older speedmap and summary pages?
Some earlier content still exists at its original web addresses so previously shared links keep working, but it is no longer part of the current site. The live analysis lives in Picks, Results, Stats and Field Notes.
How do I get in touch?
Head to our contact page — we read everything, especially corrections and data questions.