Newcastle

Heavy 8Rail: +5m Entire—10:45–16:10

Meeting overview

Newcastle in NSW hosts a provincial meeting on Heavy 8. The rail is +5m Entire. There are 10 races scheduled from 10:45 to 16:10.

The card

Distances run from 900m to 1,850m across the card. The class mix is 3 maidens, 4 benchmark races, and 3 other races. The card leans toward middle-distance races. The feature race of the day is P&K Garage Doors Hcp.

What history says

Over 265 races from 2025-05-03 to 2026-06-13, settling position flags backmarkers (11+) as the clearest profile, underperforming market expectation (0.38 A/E, 2.7% strike rate).

Trainer K A Lees has 5 runners and a 16.0% local strike rate from 119 runs (1.03 A/E) and Trainer Peter Snowden has 3 runners and a 22.0% local strike rate from 50 runs (1.20 A/E).

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Track profile: Newcastle

265 races · 2375 runners · since 2025-05-03

Today’s angles — 2+ runners here today & A/E > 1

JLeeshelle Small3 todayA/E 1.70TJohn Thompson2 todayA/E 1.54TMs K Gavenlock2 todayA/E 1.37TJ M Sharah2 todayA/E 1.34TBjorn Baker2 todayA/E 1.22TNacim Dilmi3 todayA/E 1.21TPeter Snowden3 todayA/E 1.20TMs K Waugh2 todayA/E 1.15TK A Lees5 todayA/E 1.03

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	967	111	41.9%	11.5%	0.78
Middle (5–9)	1071	121	45.7%	11.3%	0.87
Wide (10+)	337	33	12.5%	9.8%	0.86

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	741	120	45.3%	16.2%	0.92
On-pace (4–6)	728	73	27.5%	10%	0.74
Midfield (7–10)	639	51	19.2%	8%	0.84
Backmarkers (11+)	112	3	1.1%	2.7%	0.38
Unknown	155	18	6.8%	11.6%	0.81

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	66	36	13.6%	54.5%	0.93
Pop ($2–5)	523	134	50.6%	25.6%	0.89
Mid ($5–10)	558	66	24.9%	11.8%	0.87
Roughie (>$10)	1228	29	10.9%	2.4%	0.54

A/E = actual wins ÷ market-expected wins (Σ 1/SP). Above 1.0 (green) beats the market here; below 0.9 (red) lags. Strong bias day = a past meeting where one run-style won >65% of races (≥5 winners). “Today” = runners engaged here today.