Tauranga

Heavy 10Rail: Out 6m—10:22–14:22

Meeting overview

Tauranga in NZ hosts a provincial meeting on Heavy 10. The rail is Out 6m. There are 8 races scheduled from 10:22 to 14:22.

The card

Distances run from 1,200m to 2,100m across the card. The class mix is 2 maidens, 5 benchmark races, and 1 other race. The card is spread across sprint, middle-distance and staying ranges. The feature race of the day is Team Wealleans Tauranga Classic.

What history says

Over 94 races from 2025-05-28 to 2026-05-29, settling position flags backmarkers (11+) as the clearest profile, underperforming market expectation (0.31 A/E, 2.1% strike rate).

Trainer S B Marsh has 3 runners and a 20.0% local strike rate from 80 runs (1.39 A/E) and Jockey Samantha Collett has 3 runners and a 15.4% local strike rate from 52 runs (1.32 A/E).

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Track profile: Tauranga

94 races · 982 runners · since 2025-05-28

Today’s angles — 2+ runners here today & A/E > 1

TMs D Logan5 todayA/E 2.12TA W Pike4 todayA/E 1.53TS B Marsh3 todayA/E 1.39JSamantha Collett3 todayA/E 1.32JAshlee Strawbridge3 todayA/E 1.30JGeorge Rooke6 todayA/E 1.21TD B Hollinshead2 todayA/E 1.19JRihaan Goyaram4 todayA/E 1.02

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	358	46	48.9%	12.8%	1.02
Middle (5–9)	422	35	37.2%	8.3%	0.70
Wide (10+)	202	13	13.8%	6.4%	0.76

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	91	16	17%	17.6%	1.19
On-pace (4–6)	89	4	4.3%	4.5%	0.44
Midfield (7–10)	108	9	9.6%	8.3%	0.90
Backmarkers (11+)	47	1	1.1%	2.1%	0.31
Unknown	647	64	68.1%	9.9%	0.84

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	14	6	6.4%	42.9%	0.77
Pop ($2–5)	137	30	31.9%	21.9%	0.75
Mid ($5–10)	254	38	40.4%	15%	1.06
Roughie (>$10)	577	20	21.3%	3.5%	0.69

A/E = actual wins ÷ market-expected wins (Σ 1/SP). Above 1.0 (green) beats the market here; below 0.9 (red) lags. Strong bias day = a past meeting where one run-style won >65% of races (≥5 winners). “Today” = runners engaged here today.