Warrnambool

Heavy 9Rail: True Entire Circuit—12:40–16:00

Meeting overview

Warrnambool in VIC hosts a provincial meeting on Heavy 9. The rail is True Entire Circuit. There are 6 races scheduled from 12:40 to 16:00.

The card

Distances run from 2,350m to 3,450m across the card. The class mix is 2 maidens, 1 benchmark race, and 3 other races. The card leans toward staying tests. The feature race of the day is Carter Group Lafferty Hrdl.

What history says

Over 168 races from 2025-04-30 to 2026-06-14, settling position flags backmarkers (11+) as the clearest profile, underperforming market expectation (0.32 A/E, 2.3% strike rate).

Trainer Shane Jackson has 4 runners and a 25.6% local strike rate from 82 runs (1.28 A/E) and Jockey Will Gordon has 4 runners and a 23.3% local strike rate from 43 runs (1.21 A/E).

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Track profile: Warrnambool

168 races · 1693 runners · since 2025-04-30

Today’s angles — 2+ runners here today & A/E > 1

TJessica Pateman3 todayA/E 2.66JLuca Remondet3 todayA/E 2.27TShane Jackson4 todayA/E 1.28JWill Gordon4 todayA/E 1.21

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	635	68	40.5%	10.7%	0.84
Middle (5–9)	692	71	42.3%	10.3%	0.80
Wide (10+)	366	29	17.3%	7.9%	0.87

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	448	70	41.7%	15.6%	0.99
On-pace (4–6)	430	41	24.4%	9.5%	0.80
Midfield (7–10)	431	35	20.8%	8.1%	0.77
Backmarkers (11+)	171	4	2.4%	2.3%	0.32
Unknown	213	18	10.7%	8.5%	0.75

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	33	19	11.3%	57.6%	1.00
Pop ($2–5)	318	72	42.9%	22.6%	0.79
Mid ($5–10)	388	44	26.2%	11.3%	0.83
Roughie (>$10)	954	33	19.6%	3.5%	0.81

A/E = actual wins ÷ market-expected wins (Σ 1/SP). Above 1.0 (green) beats the market here; below 0.9 (red) lags. Strong bias day = a past meeting where one run-style won >65% of races (≥5 winners). “Today” = runners engaged here today.