Newcastle

TurfRail: True—11:25–16:20

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:11 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Meeting overview

Newcastle in NSW hosts a provincial meeting on Turf. The rail is True. There are 9 races scheduled from 11:25 to 16:20.

The card

Distances run from 900m to 1,850m across the card. The class mix is 5 maidens and 4 benchmark races. The card leans toward sprint trips. The feature race of the day is Toronto Workers Club Conditional (Bm68).

What history says

Over 275 races from 2025-05-03 to 2026-06-27, settling position flags backmarkers (11+) as the clearest profile, underperforming market expectation (0.38 A/E, 2.7% strike rate).

Trainer K A Lees has 5 runners and a 18.5% local strike rate from 124 runs (1.16 A/E) and Trainer Matthew Smith has 4 runners and a 12.9% local strike rate from 93 runs (1.03 A/E).

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Track profile: Newcastle

275 races · 2462 runners · since 2025-05-03

Today’s angles — 2+ runners here today & A/E > 1

TRichard Litt3 todayA/E 1.70JRebecca Bronett Prag2 todayA/E 1.63JLeeshelle Small5 todayA/E 1.61TJohn Thompson3 todayA/E 1.50TJ M Sharah2 todayA/E 1.22TK A Lees5 todayA/E 1.16TBjorn Baker2 todayA/E 1.15TNacim Dilmi2 todayA/E 1.12JMadeline Owen3 todayA/E 1.04TMatthew Smith4 todayA/E 1.03TMichael Freedman3 todayA/E 1.03

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	1007	117	42.5%	11.6%	0.79
Middle (5–9)	1115	124	45.1%	11.1%	0.86
Wide (10+)	340	34	12.4%	10%	0.87

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	771	124	45.1%	16.1%	0.92
On-pace (4–6)	758	79	28.7%	10.4%	0.77
Midfield (7–10)	666	51	18.5%	7.7%	0.81
Backmarkers (11+)	112	3	1.1%	2.7%	0.38
Unknown	155	18	6.5%	11.6%	0.81

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	70	39	14.2%	55.7%	0.95
Pop ($2–5)	536	136	49.5%	25.4%	0.88
Mid ($5–10)	582	70	25.5%	12%	0.88
Roughie (>$10)	1274	30	10.9%	2.4%	0.54

A/E = actual wins ÷ market-expected wins (Σ 1/SP). Above 1.0 (green) beats the market here; below 0.9 (red) lags. Strong bias day = a past meeting where one run-style won >65% of races (≥5 winners). “Today” = runners engaged here today.