Speed map
Lawrenny Boys and Beau Warrior make this a proper 1200m speed contest. Lawrenny Boys has the sharper repeated lead profile and barrier 3, while Beau Warrior has enough early pace to press from gate 5. Megalita, Fierce 'n Fabulous, Geegees Mercedes and Fruit Of De Vine can all be close behind, so the front pair should not be left alone.
The published selection, 4. Lawrenny Boys, is exactly where the historical profile wants a runner to be, but he does have to absorb Beau Warrior's pressure. Fruit Of De Vine is the low-drawn on-pace horse who can get the softest trail if the two leaders go at each other. Golden Sweet Heart and Lady Fern are wider midfield runners, and Celestial Glow maps too far back unless the race becomes genuinely overcooked.
Historical overview
Hobart 1200m is a forward-runner trip in the supplied history. The broad 59-race sample gives leaders 40.7% of winners and on-pace runners another 25.4%, which leaves only a modest share for those settling worse than midfield. Soft ground keeps that same bias intact rather than turning it into a swoopers' race.
The +3m rail history is small but strongly aligned. Across seven soft/+3m races, leaders have produced 57.1% of winners, and inside barriers have supplied 71.4%. That makes the low-drawn speed particularly important here. The sample is only seven races, so it should not be treated as a law, but it confirms what the larger 1200m base already says.
- First-three settling is the main edge — 57.1% of soft/+3m winners came from that band.
- Inside barriers are preferred — gates 1-4 supplied 71.4% of winners in the rail/going sample.
- Backmarkers need a pace collapse — the larger 1200m record gives them very little support.
Overall assessment
Lawrenny Boys should be able to hold a prime spot from gate 3, either leading outright or sitting at Beau Warrior's girth. That is a powerful setup at this track and distance. Fruit Of De Vine can be the beneficiary if the lead pair cut at each other, and Fierce 'n Fabulous also has the inside draw to stay in the first half.
- 4. Lawrenny Boys — the top read. He combines the published selection, a low draw, and the strongest settling band in the historical profile.
- 14. Fruit Of De Vine — the danger at a softer map price. Barrier 2 and an on-pace pattern can land him behind the speed without having to win the duel.
The published selection is 4. Lawrenny Boys at $4.95 fair odds versus $4.40 early. The map and history support him strongly, even if the displayed price is a touch below the fair line. Nandi Clan has Erica Byrne Burke's local tick, and Golden Sweet Heart has Bree Temple's, but both are less compelling because their likely map positions sit behind the main historical zone. The risk is that Beau Warrior refuses to concede and turns Lawrenny Boys' ideal forward spot into a sustained pressure role.