Port Augusta R4

14:25Costello Cattle Company Hcp (52)
1100mRestricted 52Good 3Rail: True
Races12345678
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.Entropy3.33top 3
Ranked 1st
10. My Truth
Margaret Collett (1)
Fair
$5.37
Target
$6.44
Mkt
Ranked 2nd
2. Super Sunny Seeya
Alyssa Webb (5)
Fair
$6.57
Target
$7.88
Mkt
Ranked 3rd
12. Astromancer
Tala Hutchinson (9)
Fair
$6.57
Target
$7.88
Mkt
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:40 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
2 Super Sunny Seeya(5)
8 Sumadartson(7)
Midfield4
settle 7–10
3 The Last Stand(3)
6 Hot Off(4)
4 Bad To The Bone(10)
11 Eastside Diamond(11)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
10 My Truth(1)
1 Bentley Brook(2)
7 Princess Now(6)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
9 Wandering Eye(8)
12 Astromancer(9)
13 Emmooki Magic(12)

Speed map

9. Wandering Eye, 12. Astromancer and 13. Emmooki Magic has the clearest claim to the front, so the first decision is whether that runner gets there cleanly or has to absorb pressure before the bend. The closest pressure should come from 1. Bentley Brook, 7. Princess Now and 10. My Truth. With the rail at True and the track listed Good 3, the tempo reads as genuine rather than dawdling; the important point is not just who lands first, but which horses can hold a rhythm without being forced wider than their map allows.

The money part of the map is this: 9. Wandering Eye, 12. Astromancer and 13. Emmooki Magic get the first look at controlling the race; 1. Bentley Brook, 7. Princess Now and 10. My Truth are the handy runners who can turn it into a test before the corner; 2. Super Sunny Seeya and 8. Sumadartson need either pressure up front or a lane to build into it. There are no listed picks to anchor the map, so the race read is driven by position and the historical profile. If the front half walks, the race favours those already within striking range; if they overdo it, the midfield and back markers get their only clean invitation.

Historical overview

The broad 1100m profile is based on 13 races. Its clearest barrier pointer is inside (1–4), which has supplied 53.8% of winners, while the strongest settling band is leaders (1–3) at 46.2% with an A/E of 1.18.

The more specific 1100m · Good · True sample has 13 races and keeps the emphasis around leaders (1–3) and inside (1–4); that gives the map a practical lane rather than a bare average. The market line has generally been usable: pop ($2–5) runners account for 53.8% in this set, while the rougher end is much less reliable when its share is low.

  • Leaders (1–3) is the main run-style clue — 46.2% at A/E 1.18 across 13 races, pointing most directly at 10. My Truth, 1. Bentley Brook and 12. Astromancer.
  • Barrier shape matters — Inside (1–4) has produced 53.8% of winners, so gates and early position are tied together rather than separate factors.
  • Market discipline is still needed — Pop ($2–5) has the largest historical share at 53.8%, which argues against chasing a runner only because it maps neatly.

Overall assessment

From the jump I expect the race to be decided by how quickly 9. Wandering Eye, 12. Astromancer and 13. Emmooki Magic sort their positions. The best run belongs to the horse that can be close enough before the turn without spending the middle stages chasing, because the race profile is not kind to runners who concede both position and momentum.

Key chances

  • 10. My Truth — maps on-pace from barrier 1, which fits the main historical lane used above. The jockey Margaret Collett angle adds a measured tick at this track (12.0% strike rate, A/E 1.32) without overriding the map.
  • 1. Bentley Brook — maps on-pace from barrier 2, which fits the main historical lane used above.
  • 12. Astromancer — maps lead from barrier 9, which fits the main historical lane used above. The jockey Tala Hutchinson angle adds a measured tick at this track (20.8% strike rate, A/E 1.21) without overriding the map.

The published numbers have not flagged a runner here, so there is no listed pick to defend or oppose. That leaves the assessment with the map, the track profile and the curated connection angles rather than a selection anchor.

The race comes undone for this read if the early tempo is stronger than expected and brings 2. Super Sunny Seeya and 8. Sumadartson into the race before the leaders have balanced for home.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 13 races (13 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)46753.8%15.2%0.97
Middle (5–9)59646.2%10.2%0.95
Wide (10+)2400%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)30646.2%20%1.18
On-pace (4–6)30430.8%13.3%1.12
Midfield (7–10)3100%0%0.00
Backmarkers (11+)900%0%0.00
Unknown29323.1%10.3%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)117.7%100%1.85
Pop ($2–5)27753.8%25.9%0.91
Mid ($5–10)29215.4%6.9%0.48
Roughie (>$10)72323.1%4.2%0.85