Speed map
2. La Mer Bleue, 5. Spirits Burn Deep and 14. Jenni Divine has the clearest claim to the front, so the first decision is whether that runner gets there cleanly or has to absorb pressure before the bend. The closest pressure should come from 3. Screen Spirit, 9. Chairman's List and 15. Midnight Affair. With the rail at +3m and the track listed Heavy 10, the tempo reads as genuine rather than dawdling; the important point is not just who lands first, but which horses can hold a rhythm without being forced wider than their map allows.
The money part of the map is this: 2. La Mer Bleue, 5. Spirits Burn Deep and 14. Jenni Divine get the first look at controlling the race; 3. Screen Spirit, 9. Chairman's List and 15. Midnight Affair are the handy runners who can turn it into a test before the corner; 4. Kaida Blaze, 12. Witch Of November and 16. Taluk need either pressure up front or a lane to build into it. The listed pick(s), 2. La Mer Bleue, sit on the map as 2. La Mer Bleue maps lead, so their case has to be judged through that run rather than reputation. If the front half walks, the race favours those already within striking range; if they overdo it, the midfield and back markers get their only clean invitation.
Historical overview
The broad 1200m profile is based on 48 races. Its clearest barrier pointer is middle (5–9), which has supplied 47.9% of winners, while the strongest settling band is on-pace (4–6) at 31.2% with an A/E of 1.11.
The more specific 1200m · Heavy sample has 6 races and keeps the emphasis around unknown and inside (1–4); that gives the map a practical lane rather than a bare average. The market line has generally been usable: pop ($2–5) runners account for 45.8% in this set, while the rougher end is much less reliable when its share is low.
- On-pace (4–6) is the main run-style clue — 31.2% at A/E 1.11 across 48 races, pointing most directly at 2. La Mer Bleue, 5. Spirits Burn Deep and 3. Screen Spirit.
- Barrier shape matters — Middle (5–9) has produced 47.9% of winners, so gates and early position are tied together rather than separate factors.
- Market discipline is still needed — Pop ($2–5) has the largest historical share at 45.8%, which argues against chasing a runner only because it maps neatly.
Overall assessment
From the jump I expect the race to be decided by how quickly 2. La Mer Bleue, 5. Spirits Burn Deep and 14. Jenni Divine sort their positions. The best run belongs to the horse that can be close enough before the turn without spending the middle stages chasing, because the race profile is not kind to runners who concede both position and momentum.
Key chances
- 2. La Mer Bleue — maps lead from barrier 13, which fits the main historical lane used above.
- 5. Spirits Burn Deep — maps lead from barrier 2, which fits the main historical lane used above. The trainer N J Osborne angle adds a measured tick at this track (10.0% strike rate, A/E 1.59) without overriding the map.
- 3. Screen Spirit — maps on-pace from barrier 3, which fits the main historical lane used above.
2. La Mer Bleue (fair odds $3.85, early quote $5.50) is the listed pick and the map supports it because it lands in or near the preferred settling band. My read agrees with that selection.
The race comes undone for this read if the early tempo is stronger than expected and brings 4. Kaida Blaze and 12. Witch Of November into the race before the leaders have balanced for home.