Balaklava R7

16:20Kingsford Hotel (Bm56)
1200mBenchmark 56Soft 7Rail: +5m
Races12345678
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.WinnerEntropy2.86top 3
Approved selection
Ranked 1st
9. Tahnee Territory
Kayla Crowther (1)
Fair
$2.83
Target
$3.40
Mkt
$4.40
SP
$4.20
Fin
1st
Ranked 2nd
2. Silver Chaos
Brooke King (6)
Fair
$4.39
Target
$5.27
Mkt
$2.25
SP
$2.60
Fin
3rd
Ranked 3rd
10. Aloha Blue
Jason Holder (5)
Fair
$10.06
Target
$12.07
Mkt
$5.50
SP
$4.40
Fin
6th
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
Midfield7
settle 7–10
3 Gwan So(3)
13 Galloping Guru(4)
10 Aloha Blue(5)
2 Silver Chaos(6)
14 Poetic Whisper(7)
7 Testa Dexta(8)
12 Cut No Ice(10)
On-pace4
settle 3–6
1 Lunar Module(2)
4 Boltonova(9)
11 Samanth(12)
5 Our Divinyl(13)
Leaders2
pushing for the lead
9 Tahnee Territory(1)
6 Prince Kuro(11)

Speed map

6. Prince Kuro, 9. Tahnee Territory sets up a high-pressure early shape over 1200m. The genuine forward group is 6. Prince Kuro, 9. Tahnee Territory, 1. Lunar Module, 4. Boltonova, 5. Our Divinyl, 11. Samanth, with 2. Silver Chaos, 3. Gwan So, 7. Testa Dexta, 10. Aloha Blue waiting behind and no strong backmarker cluster at the rear of the map. With 13 runners, the race is less about a blanket roll-call and more about who gets the first six spots without spending too much petrol. 6. Prince Kuro is the most-forward runner and therefore reads as a first-three settling horse for the historical lens.

The map matters most for 9. Tahnee Territory maps lead from gate 1 around position 2. The inside draw group is 1. Lunar Module, 3. Gwan So, 9. Tahnee Territory, 13. Galloping Guru, so those horses get the first chance to save ground, while the wider forward runners need to cross or slot in before the bend. If the leaders get control, the back half is up against the shape; if they overdo the first section, the fourth-to-sixth horses are the ones positioned to take advantage.

Historical overview

The broad 1200m sample points first to Leaders (1–3) (50.0% winners, 17.4% strike-rate, A/E 1.27). The more specific 1200m · Soft profile is based on 9 races and sharpens the read toward Midfield (7–10) (55.6% winners, 14.7% strike-rate, A/E 1.55), while the strongest draw group is Inside (1–4) (55.6% winners, 14.3% strike-rate, A/E 1.11). That is enough to make position and gate the main betting filters.

Market results at this setup are led by Mid ($5–10) (55.6% winners, 16.7% strike-rate, A/E 1.25). I would not treat that as a stand-alone tip, but it says whether the market has generally been reliable at this trip. The practical read is to match each horse to its predicted settling number, not the broad label on the display.

  • First three in running: 6. Prince Kuro, 9. Tahnee Territory, 1. Lunar Module — these are today's Leaders (1–3) horses.
  • Next wave: 4. Boltonova, 5. Our Divinyl, 11. Samanth — these are the On-pace (4–6) runners and need the pace to stay honest.
  • Draw lean: Inside (1–4) has produced 55.6% of winners in the specific sample.

Overall assessment

The race should be shaped by the first bend. 6. Prince Kuro, 9. Tahnee Territory controls how quickly the field strings out, and the best run is likely to belong to a horse that is already in the first half before the turn. The historical profile does not ask a runner to be brilliant from the back; it asks for position, a gate that does not force wasted ground, and enough tactical speed to stay in touch.

Key chances

  • 9. Tahnee Territory — maps around position 2, which puts it in the Leaders (1–3) lane for the historical read. Barrier 1 is workable, and trainer Travis Doudle has A/E 1.21 from 45 runs; jockey Kayla Crowther has A/E 1.18 from 37 runs adds a track tick.
  • 1. Lunar Module — maps around position 3, which puts it in the Leaders (1–3) lane for the historical read. Barrier 2 is workable, and jockey Sophie Potter has A/E 1.25 from 35 runs adds a track tick.

9. Tahnee Territory is the published selection ($2.83 fair, $3.40 target, $4.40 early); the map supports that view because it settles lead around position 2. My final read is map-led: respect the horses that combine early position and the right draw lane, and demand a better price about any runner that needs the leaders to fold before it can get into the race.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 24 races (24 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)941145.8%11.7%0.92
Middle (5–9)115833.3%7%0.67
Wide (10+)69520.8%7.2%0.91

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)691250%17.4%1.27
On-pace (4–6)69416.7%5.8%0.52
Midfield (7–10)84729.2%8.3%0.81
Backmarkers (11+)4600%0%0.00
Unknown1014.2%10%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)114.2%100%1.95
Pop ($2–5)501250%24%0.85
Mid ($5–10)63729.2%11.1%0.84
Roughie (>$10)164416.7%2.4%0.64