Canberra Acton R5

14:54Emberpoint Hcp (C1)
1080mClass 1SyntheticRail: True
Races1234567
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.Entropy2.91top 3
Ranked 1st
9. Nabha
Damon Budler (6)
Fair
$4.06
Target
$4.87
Mkt
$3.70
SP
$3.70
Fin
2nd
Ranked 2nd
10. Flashback Time
Mathew Cahill (2)
Fair
$4.73
Target
$5.68
Mkt
$4.60
SP
$4.80
Fin
7th
Ranked 3rd
1. Cool Blaze
Diego Montes De Oca (5)
Fair
$6.84
Target
$8.21
Mkt
$4.60
SP
$7.50
Fin
9th
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:35 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
Midfield4
settle 7–10
10 Flashback Time(2)
3 On Point Pixie(7)
12 Dubai Oak(8)
6 Shirley's Tribute(10)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
7 Jimmy's Ready(1)
9 Nabha(6)
11 Time And Rhythm(9)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
5 Must Be Sain(3)
2 I Show Speed(4)
1 Cool Blaze(5)

Speed map

1. Cool Blaze, 2. I Show Speed, 5. Must Be Sain sets up a high-pressure early shape over 1080m. The genuine forward group is 1. Cool Blaze, 2. I Show Speed, 5. Must Be Sain, 7. Jimmy's Ready, 9. Nabha, 11. Time And Rhythm, with 3. On Point Pixie, 6. Shirley's Tribute, 10. Flashback Time, 12. Dubai Oak waiting behind and no strong backmarker cluster at the rear of the map. With 10 runners, the race is less about a blanket roll-call and more about who gets the first six spots without spending too much petrol. 1. Cool Blaze is the most-forward runner and therefore reads as a first-three settling horse for the historical lens.

The map matters most for there is no published selection to place on the map. The inside draw group is 2. I Show Speed, 5. Must Be Sain, 7. Jimmy's Ready, 10. Flashback Time, so those horses get the first chance to save ground, while the wider forward runners need to cross or slot in before the bend. If the leaders get control, the back half is up against the shape; if they overdo the first section, the fourth-to-sixth horses are the ones positioned to take advantage.

Historical overview

The broad 1080m sample points first to Leaders (1–3) (60.0% winners, 22.2% strike-rate, A/E 1.14). The more specific 1080m · Synthetic · True profile is based on 20 races and sharpens the read toward Leaders (1–3) (60.0% winners, 22.2% strike-rate, A/E 1.14), while the strongest draw group is Inside (1–4) (55.0% winners, 15.5% strike-rate, A/E 1.02). That is enough to make position and gate the main betting filters.

Market results at this setup are led by Pop ($2–5) (55.0% winners, 26.2% strike-rate, A/E 0.94). I would not treat that as a stand-alone tip, but it says whether the market has generally been reliable at this trip. The practical read is to match each horse to its predicted settling number, not the broad label on the display.

  • First three in running: 1. Cool Blaze, 2. I Show Speed, 5. Must Be Sain — these are today's Leaders (1–3) horses.
  • Next wave: 7. Jimmy's Ready, 9. Nabha, 11. Time And Rhythm — these are the On-pace (4–6) runners and need the pace to stay honest.
  • Draw lean: Inside (1–4) has produced 55.0% of winners in the specific sample.

Overall assessment

The race should be shaped by the first bend. 1. Cool Blaze, 2. I Show Speed, 5. Must Be Sain controls how quickly the field strings out, and the best run is likely to belong to a horse that is already in the first half before the turn. The historical profile does not ask a runner to be brilliant from the back; it asks for position, a gate that does not force wasted ground, and enough tactical speed to stay in touch.

Key chances

  • 2. I Show Speed — maps around position 2, which puts it in the Leaders (1–3) lane for the historical read. Barrier 4 is workable, and jockey Sairyn Fawke has A/E 1.15 from 14 runs adds a track tick.
  • 5. Must Be Sain — maps around position 3, which puts it in the Leaders (1–3) lane for the historical read. Barrier 3 is workable, and trainer Natalie Jarvis has A/E 1.49 from 15 runs adds a track tick.

No published selection appears for this race, so the read leans on the map, the track profile and the named jockey/trainer angles. My final read is map-led: respect the horses that combine early position and the right draw lane, and demand a better price about any runner that needs the leaders to fold before it can get into the race.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
1080m · 20 races (20 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)711155%15.5%1.02
Middle (5–9)85840%9.4%0.72
Wide (10+)2415%4.2%0.51

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)541260%22.2%1.14
On-pace (4–6)54525%9.3%0.70
Midfield (7–10)5115%2%0.27
Backmarkers (11+)500%0%0.00
Unknown16210%12.5%0.94

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5210%40%0.70
Pop ($2–5)421155%26.2%0.94
Mid ($5–10)39525%12.8%0.97
Roughie (>$10)94210%2.1%0.48