Albury R7

16:15Stuart Gordon Landscaping (Bm58)
900mBenchmark 58Heavy 8Rail: +6.5m
Races1234567
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.Entropy3top 3
Ranked 1st
2. Induction
Cassidy Hill (3)
Fair
$4.01
Target
$4.81
Mkt
$7.50
Ranked 2nd
6. Brial Rose
Dale Cole (2)
Fair
$4.03
Target
$4.84
Mkt
$3.90
Ranked 3rd
7. Swift Hit
Thomas Spillane (8)
Fair
$9.23
Target
$11.08
Mkt
$15.00
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
Midfield5
settle 7–10
5 Arctic Desert(1)
2 Induction(3)
1 Sheila(5)
8 Abstruse(6)
14 Dita Von(7)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
3 Magna Mak(4)
7 Swift Hit(8)
4 Tesoro Mio(11)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
6 Brial Rose(2)
16 Prince Of Love(9)
9 Risky Whisky(10)

Speed map

This 900m race has a fast map. Brial Rose, Risky Whisky and Prince Of Love are all genuine lead types, and Magna Mak, Tesoro Mio and Swift Hit sit directly behind them. Over the short course, that much early intent should make the first 300m decisive. The leaders may not get a chance to breathe.

The race file carries no pre-race pick in its selections field. The strongest historical lane is the 4-6 row, which lines up beautifully with the map: the horses camped behind the three leaders rather than the leaders themselves. Magna Mak, Tesoro Mio and Swift Hit are the key map-and-history runners. Arctic Desert, Induction, Dita Von, Sheila and Abstruse all settle too far back for a profile that has been harsh on the 7-10 and 11+ areas.

Historical overview

At 900m, the Albury sample is clear enough to call out. The first three are okay, but the winners have most efficiently come from the next three spots. The deeper half has struggled badly, which makes this less about swoopers and more about the stalkers getting first shot at tiring speed.

Across 15 races, the 4-6 row has 7 wins from 42 runners at A/E 1.47. The first-three row is A/E 0.95, the 7-10 row is just A/E 0.18, and 11+ is winless. Barrier data is not especially strong, though wide gates are not hopeless in the broad sample. The market has been practical: $2-$5 runners have 9 wins from 31, while roughies have rarely landed.

  • The 4-6 row is the winning zoneMagna Mak, Tesoro Mio and Swift Hit all land there.
  • Deep runners are historically up against it — 7-10 has only 1 from 51 at A/E 0.18.
  • Brial Rose has a trainer tick but a hot row — R T Stubbs is positive locally, yet the leader band is not the best lane.

Overall assessment

Brial Rose, Risky Whisky and Prince Of Love should drive the race early, with no obvious reason for all three to concede. That gives the stalkers the ideal setup: close enough to use the short straight, but not responsible for absorbing the full early burn. The historical table strongly reinforces that view.

Key chances:

  • #3 Magna Mak — maps first of the 4-6 runners, sits in the best historical row, and has a W G Carroll trainer angle in support.
  • #4 Tesoro Mio — also in the winning lane, with the T Fitzsimmons record adding a positive note.
  • #7 Swift Hit — the third horse in the target row and tied to a Peter Smith trainer angle; he is the one who can capitalise if the leaders overcook it.

The race file carries no pre-race pick. My read is strongly with the stalking trio rather than the raw leaders. The only way that fails is if one leader clears the others quickly; if they remain three across or stacked, the 4-6 row should get the race.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
900m · 15 races (15 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)57640%10.5%0.81
Middle (5–9)73640%8.2%0.75
Wide (10+)31320%9.7%1.03

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)42640%14.3%0.95
On-pace (4–6)42746.7%16.7%1.47
Midfield (7–10)5116.7%2%0.18
Backmarkers (11+)1400%0%0.00
Unknown1216.7%8.3%0.83

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)2213.3%100%1.59
Pop ($2–5)31960%29%0.95
Mid ($5–10)27320%11.1%0.84
Roughie (>$10)10116.7%1%0.25