Speed map
Bullion Hunter and Bethsheba are the two natural leaders, and both have enough recent speed to make the 1000m run genuinely contested. Nor Nor West, Singing Star and Sobek sit right behind that pair, so the first half of the race should have pressure from multiple lanes rather than one horse dictating. That matters at the short course because a hot 1000m can quickly turn the leaders from advantaged to vulnerable.
The midfield group is where the race becomes interesting. Canamble maps in the 4–6 band, while Octavian Treasure, Listins Lass and Sapphire Kiss settle in the 7–10 row that has been strongest on soft-ground Scone 1000m races. No published pick was flagged here, so the question is whether to trust the obvious speed or look for the horses who can camp just off it. Given Bullion Hunter and Bethsheba both want to be positive, the map gives the off-speed runners a genuine path into the race.
Historical overview
The broad 1000m sample at Scone is not a pure leader profile. Across 26 races, the first-three settlers have won 11 times but only at an A/E of 0.97, while the 4–6 band is weaker and the 7–10 row is close to neutral. Roughies have also done better than expected at the trip, so this is not a race type where the market always has it nailed.
The Soft 7 version is more pointed. In 10 races on the going, the 7–10 row has produced 2 winners at an A/E of 1.41, while the first-three row is around neutral and the 4–6 row is weak. Barriers 5–9 have the best volume, but the small wide-gate sample has a high A/E; the +7m rail sample is too thin to be decisive. Overall, today’s going nudges the read away from the pure speed horses and toward the horses who can sit off a contested first half.
- The 7–10 row is the soft-ground edge — 2 of 10 winners at an A/E of 1.41, supporting Octavian Treasure, Listins Lass and Sapphire Kiss.
- The front three are not knocked out, but not dominant — Bullion Hunter, Bethsheba and Nor Nor West sit in a row with a 0.92 A/E on soft ground.
- The 4–6 band is the awkward lane — Singing Star, Sobek and Canamble land in the weakest settling zone, so they need either class or a perfect cart into it.
Overall assessment
Bullion Hunter and Bethsheba should take each other into the race, with Nor Nor West, Singing Star and Sobek close enough to make the speed honest. That is a setup where the leaders can still be dangerous if one clearly wins the early battle, but the better historical lane is behind them. The race shape and the Soft 7 1000m profile both make the 7–10 settlers the right place to look.
- #11 Octavian Treasure — maps into the winning 7–10 row and should get first use of the off-speed lane. The recent pattern is mixed, but the final position is exactly where the soft-ground profile says to be.
- #9 Listins Lass — also lands in the 7–10 row and has enough midfield pattern to be close enough if the leaders come back. Barrier 8 is workable in a race where the middle/wide lanes have not been a major historical negative.
- #12 Sapphire Kiss — drawn low but maps to the same winning row, which can be useful if Grant Buckley can save ground and angle out rather than be buried behind tiring speed.
With no published pick, my read is to be wary of the obvious pace horses and give most respect to the off-speed trio. The trainer angle around Singing Star and Canamble is noted, especially for Canamble with Rory Hutchings also positive locally, but both sit in the weaker 4–6 historical lane, so the map and history do not make them the primary chances.