Murray Bridge GH R6

15:00Kookaburra Homes (Bm56)
1400mBenchmark 56Soft 6Rail: +12m
Races123456789
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.Entropy3.14top 3
Ranked 1st
2. Chur Nibble
Ben Price (6)
Fair
$2.91
Target
$3.49
Mkt
$4.40
Ranked 2nd
7. Stratum Pride
Stacey Metcalfe (2)
Fair
$9.57
Target
$11.48
Mkt
$6.50
Ranked 3rd
11. She Rex
Jackson Murphy (3)
Fair
$11.20
Target
$13.44
Mkt
$8.50
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:35 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers3
settle 11+
13 Chilko Lake(1)
3 Dreams Fulfilled(8)
12 Off The Cuff(9)
Midfield6
settle 7–10
7 Stratum Pride(2)
1 Rideau(5)
4 Ironbar(7)
8 Frontpoint(11)
5 Spangled Sipper(12)
10 Heat Of The Night(13)
On-pace1
settle 3–6
11 She Rex(3)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
9 Hazy Daze(4)
2 Chur Nibble(6)
6 Sangue Rosso(10)

Speed map

This is the strongest-pressure Murray Bridge map in the batch. Sangue Rosso, Hazy Daze and Chur Nibble all have genuine first-three evidence, so the lead is not gifted to one horse. Sangue Rosso and Hazy Daze look the cleanest speed pair, while Chur Nibble can be right there if pushed. That much early intent makes the first three vulnerable at 1400m on Soft ground.

The race sets up nicely for the next wave. She Rex maps fourth and is the first horse behind the leaders, while Frontpoint and Heat Of The Night settle fifth and sixth. Those three are exactly where the Soft 1400m profile says the winners have come from. Stratum Pride has a strong P Huserot/Stacey Metcalfe angle, but it maps only tenth, outside the preferred 4–6 zone.

Historical overview

The broad 1400m record gives the 4–6 settlers a slight edge, and today's Soft sample makes that edge more meaningful: 5 of 11 winners, A/E 1.36. The rail-matching sample also supports the same zone at A/E 1.29, so this is not a lone number; the condition and rail reads converge around stalkers.

The first three have been poor on Soft 1400m, winning only 1 of 11 at A/E 0.29. Middle barriers have performed best on the Soft sample, with 7 of 11 winners and A/E 1.51, which helps She Rex less by gate but helps Frontpoint more. The market has not been a simple favourite race; mid-range and rougher runners have both had room to win.

  • The 4–6 band is the target — 5 of 11 Soft 1400m races, A/E 1.36, points at She Rex, Frontpoint and Heat Of The Night.
  • Leaders are opposed by history — first-three runners are A/E 0.29 on Soft 1400m.
  • Middle gates are strongest — 7 of 11 Soft winners, A/E 1.51, a draw tick for Frontpoint.

Overall assessment

The leaders should ensure this is not a sit-sprint. Sangue Rosso and Hazy Daze have enough speed to make each other work, Chur Nibble adds another body to the first line, and that puts the race in the hands of the horses camped behind them. The 4–6 trio get the best blend of pressure relief and historical support.

Key chances:

  • #8 Frontpoint — settles fifth in the winning row and has a middle/wide draw that aligns better with the Soft 1400m draw pattern than the inside speed.
  • #11 She Rex — maps fourth, the first stalking position behind the pressure, and can get the first crack at the leaders.
  • #10 Heat Of The Night — sits sixth in the same winning row and has a positive Ms E Hubbard trainer angle, but needs to avoid being posted from barrier 13.

No listed pick is carried for this race. The main danger to the read is one of the three leaders unexpectedly taking a sit; if the pressure evaporates, the front-line knock softens.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 45 races (45 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1741431.1%8%0.81
Middle (5–9)2092248.9%10.5%0.95
Wide (10+)174920%5.2%0.62

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1351328.9%9.6%0.90
On-pace (4–6)1351737.8%12.6%1.16
Midfield (7–10)1691124.4%6.5%0.65
Backmarkers (11+)11748.9%3.4%0.45
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)424.4%50%0.88
Pop ($2–5)761431.1%18.4%0.69
Mid ($5–10)1401942.2%13.6%1.01
Roughie (>$10)3371022.2%3%0.75