Speed map
There is no confirmed leader in the usual sense, but Empress Of The Sun and Jaykayann are the two most reliable forward runners and should be the first pair in the run. Lightening Mann is mixed but can land third, while Tsitsipas, Omamori and Aberfeldie Boy make up the next line. The tempo is likely controlled rather than hot, which gives the front pair a tactical say at 2400m.
The listed pick, Empress Of The Sun, maps exactly where a staying favourite wants to be: first settler without needing to burn. The historical wrinkle is the 11-plus row, where Shultzy sits as the lone deep runner in the strongest A/E band, albeit off a tiny base. Urban Outlook has the Jordan Childs angle but lands in the 7–10 row, not one of the winning lanes.
Historical overview
The 2400m sample is only 5 races, so every conclusion needs caution. Within that small base, the first-three row has won 2 races at A/E 1.21, while the 11-plus row has 1 win at A/E 4.93 from just 3 runs. That is a signal worth noting, not a stand-alone edge.
There is no usable Heavy-specific or rail-specific 2400m profile, so today's Heavy 9 staying test is not well described by history. Barrier results are similarly thin, with no strong lane to lean on. The market profile has allowed rougher winners, but again off a small sample.
- First three have mild support — 2 of 5 at the trip, A/E 1.21, suits Empress Of The Sun, Jaykayann and Lightening Mann.
- The deep-row spike is fragile but relevant — 1 of 5 to the 11-plus row, A/E 4.93, points only to Shultzy.
- Jordan Childs is a positive angle — Urban Outlook gets that support, but its settling row is not the statistical one.
Overall assessment
Empress Of The Sun and Jaykayann should control the race between them, with Lightening Mann close enough if the pace lifts. The small historical sample supports the front three just enough to respect the map, while Shultzy is the one deep runner with a stats-based case if this becomes a true staying grind.
Key chances:
- #9 Empress Of The Sun — the listed pick is supported by the map and the first-three 2400m row. It is not a huge-sample edge, but the tactical position is ideal.
- #4 Jaykayann — sits second in the same supported row and can keep the listed pick within range throughout.
- #10 Shultzy — the deep-row alternative, with the explicit caveat that the A/E spike is built on a tiny sample. If Heavy 9 turns this into a slog, it is the one the history says not to ignore.
The listed pick and this read agree on Empress Of The Sun. The risk is that the race is run too slowly for Shultzy to use the deep-row profile.