Ballarat Synthetic R7

16:00Sportsbet Feed Hcp (C1)
1200mClass 1SyntheticRail: True
Races12345678
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.WinnerEntropy2.92top 3
Approved selection
Ranked 1st
1. Bad Blood
Harry Coffey (8)
Fair
$4.04
Target
$4.85
Mkt
$1.85
SP
$2.25
Fin
1st
Ranked 2nd
11. Gisella
Alana Kelly (4)
Fair
$5.73
Target
$6.88
Mkt
$5.50
SP
$4.40
Fin
4th
Ranked 3rd
5. Very Torquee
Lachlan King (3)
Fair
$6.84
Target
$8.21
Mkt
$10.00
SP
$10.00
Fin
3rd
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:35 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
Midfield3
settle 7–10
5 Very Torquee(3)
8 Pico Bella(6)
10 Moaksun(9)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
9 Magic Money(1)
4 Bark(2)
11 Gisella(4)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
2 Angling For Info(5)
3 Min Kiata(7)
1 Bad Blood(8)

Speed map

1. Bad Blood, 2. Angling For Info, 3. Min Kiata sets up a high-pressure early shape over 1200m. The genuine forward group is 1. Bad Blood, 2. Angling For Info, 3. Min Kiata, 4. Bark, 9. Magic Money, 11. Gisella, with 5. Very Torquee, 8. Pico Bella, 10. Moaksun waiting behind and no strong backmarker cluster at the rear of the map. With 9 runners, the race is less about a blanket roll-call and more about who gets the first six spots without spending too much petrol. 1. Bad Blood is the most-forward runner and therefore reads as a first-three settling horse for the historical lens.

The map matters most for 1. Bad Blood maps lead from gate 8 around position 1. The inside draw group is 4. Bark, 5. Very Torquee, 9. Magic Money, 11. Gisella, so those horses get the first chance to save ground, while the wider forward runners need to cross or slot in before the bend. If the leaders get control, the back half is up against the shape; if they overdo the first section, the fourth-to-sixth horses are the ones positioned to take advantage.

Historical overview

The broad 1200m sample points first to Leaders (1–3) (45.0% winners, 17.1% strike-rate, A/E 0.89). The more specific 1200m · Synthetic · True profile is based on 39 races and sharpens the read toward Leaders (1–3) (46.2% winners, 17.6% strike-rate, A/E 0.93), while the strongest draw group is Inside (1–4) (48.7% winners, 14.3% strike-rate, A/E 0.92). That is enough to make position and gate the main betting filters.

Market results at this setup are led by Mid ($5–10) (28.2% winners, 13.8% strike-rate, A/E 1.01). I would not treat that as a stand-alone tip, but it says whether the market has generally been reliable at this trip. The practical read is to match each horse to its predicted settling number, not the broad label on the display.

  • First three in running: 1. Bad Blood, 2. Angling For Info, 3. Min Kiata — these are today's Leaders (1–3) horses.
  • Next wave: 4. Bark, 9. Magic Money, 11. Gisella — these are the On-pace (4–6) runners and need the pace to stay honest.
  • Draw lean: Inside (1–4) has produced 48.7% of winners in the specific sample.

Overall assessment

The race should be shaped by the first bend. 1. Bad Blood, 2. Angling For Info, 3. Min Kiata controls how quickly the field strings out, and the best run is likely to belong to a horse that is already in the first half before the turn. The historical profile does not ask a runner to be brilliant from the back; it asks for position, a gate that does not force wasted ground, and enough tactical speed to stay in touch.

Key chances

  • 1. Bad Blood — maps around position 1, which puts it in the Leaders (1–3) lane for the historical read. Barrier 8 is workable, and trainer T & C McEvoy has A/E 1.1 from 52 runs adds a track tick.
  • 2. Angling For Info — maps around position 2, which puts it in the Leaders (1–3) lane for the historical read. Barrier 5 is workable, and the race shape gives it the right tactical base.

1. Bad Blood is the published selection ($4.04 fair, $4.85 target, $1.85 early); the map supports that view because it settles lead around position 1. My final read is map-led: respect the horses that combine early position and the right draw lane, and demand a better price about any runner that needs the leaders to fold before it can get into the race.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 40 races (40 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1371947.5%13.9%0.90
Middle (5–9)1471742.5%11.6%0.89
Wide (10+)65410%6.2%0.52

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1051845%17.1%0.89
On-pace (4–6)1011435%13.9%1.04
Midfield (7–10)7637.5%3.9%0.41
Backmarkers (11+)1200%0%0.00
Unknown55512.5%9.1%0.79

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)211127.5%52.4%0.81
Pop ($2–5)57922.5%15.8%0.57
Mid ($5–10)811230%14.8%1.09
Roughie (>$10)190820%4.2%1.06