Speed map
Kikorangi and I Will Shine are the two most likely leaders in the last. Kikorangi has the cleanest repeated first-three pattern and can roll forward from barrier 8; I Will Shine has strong early evidence as well, but the latest mixed settle means he is not quite as straightforward. Swycho, Bold Secret and Take A Pick can all be handy, though Bold Secret and Take A Pick are drawn wide and may need to spend something to get there. Thorin, Attain, Back Me Up Benny, Rideau, Torrita and Tottori form the midfield group, while Annihilate, Naralinga and Falanghina are the backmarkers.
Take A Pick has the best angle stack in the race, with Sarah Rutten and Jason Holder both positive, but barrier 14 makes the map awkward. Attain has the S H Sit angle and maps midfield from barrier 9; Rideau has Caitlin Tootell and a more economical barrier 5, but his settling pattern is mixed. Kikorangi is the one with the race-shaping role, while Swycho from barrier 4 gets the cleanest stalking setup.
Historical overview
The Parks 1400m record is leader-friendly. Across 44 races, leaders have won 23 and returned 1.18 A/E, while backmarkers are winless. Middle barriers have produced half the winners and wide gates have been fine on A/E, so the settling position is more important than the draw alone.
The Soft 1400m subset is even stronger for speed. Leaders have won 12 of 18 races and returned 1.43 A/E, while on-pace and midfield rows sit well below par and backmarkers are again winless. The $2-$5 market band has also been reliable at 1.16 A/E. There is no exact rail sample, so the Soft 1400m pattern is the strongest piece of evidence.
- Soft 1400m leaders dominate — 12 of 18 winners at 1.43 A/E, supporting Kikorangi and I Will Shine.
- Backmarkers are a hard negative — zero broad and Soft winners, against Annihilate, Naralinga and Falanghina.
- Middle barriers are fine — nine of 18 Soft winners from barriers 5-9, helping Kikorangi and Rideau more than the extreme-wide pressers.
Overall assessment
Kikorangi should be positive and can control if I Will Shine does not kick up aggressively. Swycho can trail from barrier 4, while Bold Secret and Take A Pick need to overcome wide gates if they want the same position. The history says the race should be won from the front half, and the backmarkers need a much stronger tempo than the map promises.
Key chances:
- 14. Kikorangi — She has the clearest lead profile, a suitable middle draw and the strongest historical lane. The Soft 1400m data supports her directly.
- 12. Swycho — Barrier 4 and an on-pace map give him the best stalking run if Kikorangi is pressured.
- 11. Take A Pick — The Rutten/Holder angles are positives, but barrier 14 undercuts the case. He needs to cross or slot in without covering too much ground.
The models have not published a selection. My race read is still fairly clear: Kikorangi gets the most support from map and history, Swycho is the efficient trailer, and Take A Pick is the angles runner whose price must account for the wide draw.