Emerald R2

13:42Emerald Ford Plate (C1)
1000mClass 1Soft 5Rail: True
Races1234567
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.Entropy2.69top 3
Ranked 1st
5. All Too Vegas
Matthew Gray (2)
Fair
$2.89
Target
$3.47
Mkt
$7.50
Ranked 2nd
8. Shemakesmenervous
Chris Mc Iver (1)
Fair
$5.70
Target
$6.84
Mkt
$1.80
Ranked 3rd
7. Ask Me Harry
Tahlia Fenlon (8)
Fair
$8.15
Target
$9.78
Mkt
$21.00
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
Midfield2
settle 7–10
8 Shemakesmenervous(1)
9 Viking Treasure(4)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
5 All Too Vegas(2)
3 August Joe(7)
7 Ask Me Harry(8)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
4 Eastcoast Hussler(3)
1 Galath(5)
6 Untold Story(6)

Speed map

This 1000m Class 1 has real early pressure. Galath, Eastcoast Hussler and Untold Story all map as leaders or first-three runners, with August Joe, All Too Vegas and Ask Me Harry sitting right behind them. Over the short trip, that many forward runners should make the first 300m competitive rather than comfortable.

The race file carries no pre-race pick in its selections field. The most specific Emerald soft/rail profile says the first three are close to the best lane, while the 4-6 row has been winless in the sample. That creates a tricky read: the leaders are historically the right zone, but there are three of them. Untold Story has the Emma Bell rider angle, Galath has the most consistent forward pattern, and Eastcoast Hussler is a lightly exposed pace runner from barrier 3. The midfield pair need the leaders to overcook it despite their row not being the historical target.

Historical overview

The 1000m Emerald profile under today's soft/rail setup is usable at six races. It favours being right on speed, with the first-three row just under the formal winning-row threshold but clearly better than the 4-6 band.

In that exact sample, first-three settlers are 4 from 15 at A/E 1.19, the 4-6 group is 0 from 15, and the 7-10 row is 1 from 10 at A/E 0.89. Middle barriers have been strongest, with 4 wins from 24 at A/E 1.53, while inside barriers have underperformed. The market has been contrarian: mid-price runners have the best return and roughies have not won.

  • First-three is the practical laneGalath, Eastcoast Hussler and Untold Story sit there.
  • The 4-6 band is a warning zoneAugust Joe, All Too Vegas and Ask Me Harry land in a winless row.
  • Middle barriers helpGalath and Untold Story draw in the preferred band.

Overall assessment

Galath, Eastcoast Hussler and Untold Story should all be prominent, and the race likely goes to whichever of them can hold speed without being softened. August Joe and Ask Me Harry are close enough to pounce if the leaders knock each other around, but the exact table does not love their row.

Key chances:

  • #6 Untold Story — maps in the first-three lane, draws the middle band and gets the Emma Bell track angle. He is the most rounded map/history chance.
  • #1 Galath — also in the key row and from a suitable middle draw; he is the benchmark if the leaders do not cut at each other.
  • #4 Eastcoast Hussler — barrier 3 and early speed put him in the right part, though the inside draw band is historically softer.

The race file carries no pre-race pick. My read stays with the leader trio despite the pressure because the exact 1000m profile has been harsh on the 4-6 row. If the three leaders turn it into a duel, Viking Treasure is the type of runner who could make the map look too speed-heavy.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
1000m · 12 races (12 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)48650%12.5%0.66
Middle (5–9)36650%16.7%1.43
Wide (10+)600%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)33866.7%24.2%1.07
On-pace (4–6)2718.3%3.7%0.31
Midfield (7–10)17216.7%11.8%1.04
Backmarkers (11+)100%0%0.00
Unknown1218.3%8.3%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)2216.7%100%1.26
Pop ($2–5)24758.3%29.2%0.95
Mid ($5–10)22325%13.6%0.94
Roughie (>$10)4200%0%0.00