Pinjarra R5

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1600mMaidenSoft 5Rail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 09:01 AEST
Races1234567
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.Entropy3.22top 3
Ranked 1st
13. Midnight Deal
William Pike (13)
Fair
$4.64
Target
$5.57
Mkt
$3.40
Ranked 2nd
9. Vexatious Rose
Shaun O'Donnell (1)
Fair
$5.49
Target
$6.59
Mkt
$2.70
Ranked 3rd
11. Bangalong
Brad Parnham (3)
Fair
$5.49
Target
$6.59
Mkt
$5.50
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers4
settle 11+
9 Vexatious Rose(1)
7 Ignatian(2)
16 Think She Sparks(5)
14 The Lithgow Flash(14)
Midfield10
settle 7–10
11 Bangalong(3)
5 Lucky Target(4)
4 He'snotallthere(6)
6 Consolidated(7)
8 Miss Graphene(8)
1 Yalda Night(9)
12 War Colours(11)
10 Valanne Dawn(12)
13 Midnight Deal(13)
3 Delicate Warrior(15)
On-pace1
settle 3–6
2 Rare Honor(10)
Leaders0
pushing for the lead

Speed map

This 1600m maiden has very little confirmed speed. Rare Honor is the only runner I am comfortable marking on pace, while the rest of the field is dominated by midfield and back markers. Yalda Night, Delicate Warrior, He'snotallthere, Lucky Target, Consolidated, Miss Graphene, Valanne Dawn, Bangalong, War Colours and Midnight Deal all settle through the middle, with Ignatian, Vexatious Rose, The Lithgow Flash and Think She Sparks back. The tempo is likely controlled rather than searching.

That makes Rare Honor tactically important despite gate 10. If it can cross without spending too much, it may get the race shape others lack. Bangalong has gate 3 and Brad Parnham, but it maps midfield. War Colours and Midnight Deal have the better rider/trainer angles, yet both are drawn wide and do not own the speed.

Historical overview

Pinjarra 1600m is broadly front-half friendly. Across 32 races, the first three settlers have 14 wins and A/E 1.23; the 4-6 band is workable at A/E 0.92, while the 7-10 and 11+ rows are weaker. The usable Soft 5 sample sharpens that: positions 1-3 have three wins from six races at A/E 1.62, clearly the strongest settling lane.

The exact Soft 5/rail sample is only two races, so it is too thin to override the going profile. Barrier data on the Soft 5 sample is split between inside and wide, but barrier alone cannot compensate for settling too far back.

  • Front three are the preferred lane — both broad and rail samples put them on top.
  • The race lacks natural speedRare Honor may get a tactical advantage by default.
  • Angles sit mostly off-speedWar Colours, Midnight Deal and Bangalong need map help despite positive human factors.

Overall assessment

The historical profile wants a forward runner, and this field offers very few. That makes Rare Honor the map horse almost by elimination. The query is the draw; if it cannot cross from 10, the race may become a muddling contest where inside midfielders get their chance.

Key chances:

  • #2 Rare Honor — the only reliable on-pace runner and the best fit for the 1600m/rail profile if it crosses cleanly.
  • #11 Bangalong — gate 3 and Brad Parnham give it a chance to land closer than midfield and use the inside-barrier profile.
  • #12 War Colours — has a Cassey Martinan track angle and enough mixed settling to be closer than the backmarkers, but gate 11 is a concern.

There are no published model selections here. My read is map-led: Rare Honor has the tactical advantage, while Bangalong and War Colours are the alternatives if the leader cannot cross. The deep closers need a pace that the field does not obviously provide.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 32 races (32 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1241134.4%8.9%0.77
Middle (5–9)1511340.6%8.6%0.73
Wide (10+)60825%13.3%1.16

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)961443.8%14.6%1.23
On-pace (4–6)961134.4%11.5%0.92
Midfield (7–10)109515.6%4.6%0.41
Backmarkers (11+)3426.2%5.9%0.61

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)439.4%75%1.20
Pop ($2–5)691753.1%24.6%0.87
Mid ($5–10)64825%12.5%0.90
Roughie (>$10)198412.5%2%0.50