Pinjarra R7

18:27Racing@pinjarra Park Thursday July 16 Hcp (C3)
1400mClass 3Soft 5Rail: TrueFinal race-day data · updated 09:01 AEST
Races1234567
Model rankingsall runners · unfiltered
ConsensusOur key selections. A pick only appears when multiple models that we use agree on the same top selection — the highest-performing signal we publish. We only bet if we can get the Target price (20% above our Fair price) or better. Early prices shown here are a guide only. We reconcile our results only on those selections where the bookmaker SP is above the target price. You should make your own assessment if these selections fit your betting profile and never bet what you aren't prepared to lose. Our models aren't perfect, don't expect our selections to be.Entropy3.16top 3
Ranked 1st
1. Bannered
Zephen Johnston-Porter (9)
Fair
$4.59
Target
$5.51
Mkt
$5.00
Ranked 2nd
6. Apparatus
Austin Galati (8)
Fair
$6.63
Target
$7.96
Mkt
$7.50
Ranked 3rd
7. Five Down
Holly Watson (5)
Fair
$6.63
Target
$7.96
Mkt
$4.20
FairThis is our model's price for this horse, any odds above this are considered good value.
TargetThe minimum price to bet — 20% above Fair. Only back this runner at the Target price or longer.
MktMarket price as @ 08:30 AEST.
SP — Official Bookmaker Starting Price
EntropyA score that reflects how contested a race is based on the model's predicted results. Lower the better, ≤ 2.7 is considered a good clear indicator.
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
7 Five Down(5)
6 Apparatus(8)
Midfield3
settle 7–10
10 Lady Kiki(2)
3 Jazalot(3)
2 Awesome Force(6)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
8 Lady Coco(4)
1 Bannered(9)
4 Hang Glider(10)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
11 Angel's My Name(1)
5 Sandfire Rose(7)
9 Pat's Last Bang(11)

Speed map

This 1400m Class 3 has several genuine pace horses. Sandfire Rose, Pat's Last Bang and Angel's My Name all have leader-level recent patterns, with Bannered, Hang Glider and Lady Coco able to sit close. Awesome Force, Jazalot and Lady Kiki map midfield, while Apparatus and Five Down are the confirmed backmarkers. The tempo should be more testing than the average Pinjarra 1400m.

Sandfire Rose has the Holly Nottle angle and enough speed to be the first reference point, but gate 7 means it may not get the rail cheaply. Angel's My Name is drawn gate 1 and can kick up, while Pat's Last Bang has gate 11 and could be the one forced to work. Lady Coco gets a good stalking draw in gate 4 and Brad Parnham, which matters if the leaders go too hard.

Historical overview

The Pinjarra 1400m rail profile is strongly pro-front. Across 10 rail-matched races, the first three settlers have seven wins and A/E 1.90. The broader 27-race profile also supports early position, with the first three at A/E 1.33 and the middle/back lanes weaker.

The exact Soft 5/rail sample is too thin to carry the analysis, but it does not need to: the rail and broad samples agree that the winner is usually in the first three. The tactical wrinkle is that this field has three likely leaders, so the best version of the forward bias may be a horse that holds first-three position without being the widest worker.

  • First-three lane is dominant — the rail profile is the clearest historical signal.
  • Inside speed is valuableAngel's My Name can use gate 1 to offset the pressure.
  • Stalking speed is still liveLady Coco can sit close enough if the leaders sort themselves out.

Overall assessment

The race is fast on paper, but the track profile still says to be forward. I am not keen to elevate the deep closers unless the leaders go far beyond a normal contest. The best chances are the leaders or immediate stalkers with the least expensive early run.

Key chances:

  • #11 Angel's My Name — gate 1, genuine speed and the strongest historical lane make it the map horse if it begins cleanly.
  • #5 Sandfire Rose — leader profile plus Holly Nottle's track record; the query is crossing or sitting outside from gate 7.
  • #8 Lady Coco — maps just behind the leaders from gate 4 and has the Brad Parnham angle if the pace becomes too willing.

There are no published model selections here. My read is that the winner still comes from the first three or just behind them. Pat's Last Bang has speed, but gate 11 makes it the forward runner most likely to pay for the pressure.

This write up was completed using AI. We prompt it with extensive real race data and actively manage parts of the output. We are actively reviewing and refining these prompts, if you have feedback about these commentaries, please send us a message to hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by StopWatch (gpt-5.5).

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 27 races (27 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1021037%9.8%0.71
Middle (5–9)1181037%8.5%0.78
Wide (10+)70725.9%10%1.16

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)811348.1%16%1.33
On-pace (4–6)81829.6%9.9%0.69
Midfield (7–10)89414.8%4.5%0.43
Backmarkers (11+)3827.4%5.3%0.94
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)327.4%66.7%1.09
Pop ($2–5)541348.1%24.1%0.87
Mid ($5–10)67829.6%11.9%0.87
Roughie (>$10)166414.8%2.4%0.57