HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← MoeFriday 3 July 2026

Moe R2

12:45Total Tools Mdn Plate
1217mMaidenRail: Out 6m Entire CircuitEarly preview · published 2 July 14:42 AEST — updated race morning
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Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (2 July 14:42 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — will change with final scratchings, jockeys and track conditionEntropy2.48top 3
Ranked 1st
2. Eton Affair
Billy Egan (2)
Ranked 2nd
6. Canny Miss
Lachlan Neindorf (6)
Ranked 3rd
7. Here's Matilda
Daniel Stackhouse (4)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data3
no recent settle
7 Here's Matilda(4)
3 Mighty Mystic(7)
4 Narilao(8)
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield2
settle 7–10
5 Spiderman(3)
1 Admire Mercury(5)
On-pace1
settle 3–6
8 Red Rabbit(1)
Leaders2
pushing for the lead
2 Eton Affair(2)
6 Canny Miss(6)

Historical overview

Across the 39 sampled runnings of 1217m at Moe: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 20 of 39 winners (51.3% of winners, 19.0% strike, 1.17 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 17 of 39 winners (43.6% of winners, 9.9% strike, 0.86 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1217m · +6m ±1m, 9 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 6 of 9 winners (66.7% of winners, 25.0% strike, 1.31 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 4 from 7 (57.1% strike, 1.03 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 12.8% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1217m · 39 races (39 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1421538.5%10.6%0.82
Middle (5–9)1721743.6%9.9%0.86
Wide (10+)93717.9%7.5%0.81

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1052051.3%19%1.17
On-pace (4–6)102923.1%8.8%0.67
Midfield (7–10)122615.4%4.9%0.62
Backmarkers (11+)3500%0%0.00
Unknown43410.3%9.3%0.82

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)7410.3%57.1%1.03
Pop ($2–5)671948.7%28.4%0.96
Mid ($5–10)1081128.2%10.2%0.78
Roughie (>$10)225512.8%2.2%0.55