Gold Coast R4

16:37Hum Energy Hcp
1400mOpenRail: +1m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Hum Energy Hcpa 1400m open at Gold Coast, jumping at 16:37 on ground, rail +1m. 8 runners engaged.

At the trip

Gold Coast has staged 79 races at 1400m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 30 of 79 (38.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 38 of 79 (48.1% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.59 (14 from 240).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 38 of 79 (48.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 3 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Settle position 1–3 accounted for 3 of the 3 winners (3 from 9 runners, A/E 2.09) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer Michael Freedman: 24 from 142 (16.9%) in the last 90 days (9 of those in the last 30) — saddles #1 Edited By here.
  • Trainer Ms M Brosnan is 2 from 19 at today’s meeting profile (10.5% strike, A/E 1.41) and has #3 Badgers Nuts here.
  • Jockey Frederick Larson is 7 from 59 at today’s meeting profile (11.9% strike, A/E 1.25) and has #8 Demitasse here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1400m · 79 races (79 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)3072835.4%9.1%0.74
Middle (5–9)3393038%8.8%0.74
Wide (10+)2052126.6%10.2%1.15

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)2193848.1%17.4%1.17
On-pace (4–6)2171822.8%8.3%0.67
Midfield (7–10)2401417.7%5.8%0.59
Backmarkers (11+)11845.1%3.4%0.60
Unknown5756.3%8.8%0.70

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)822.5%25%0.41
Pop ($2–5)1503848.1%25.3%0.86
Mid ($5–10)1952430.4%12.3%0.90
Roughie (>$10)4981519%3%0.71

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.