Woodville R3

11:12Buckley Contracting Hawke's Bay Hrdl
3000mHurdleRail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:09 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Buckley Contracting Hawke's Bay Hrdla 3000m hurdle at Woodville, jumping at 11:12 on ground, rail true. 8 runners engaged.

At the trip

Woodville has staged 7 races at 3000m in our sample — too small to base a decision on.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) and Middle (5–9) win the most races here — 3 of 7 each (42.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: no workable sample in this category.
  • Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 3 of 7 (42.9% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 69 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Mid ($5–10) accounted for 3 of the 7 winners (3 from 14 runners, A/E 1.59) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Trainer P Nelson & C Mcdougal is 3 from 24 at today’s meeting profile (12.5% strike, A/E 1.65) and has #1 Dictation, #2 Taika, #5 The Bambino here.
  • Trainer J L Rathbone is 4 from 16 at today’s meeting profile (25.0% strike, A/E 1.62) and has #8 Affordable here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
3000m · 7 races (7 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)26342.9%11.5%0.94
Middle (5–9)32342.9%9.4%0.83
Wide (10+)11114.3%9.1%0.64

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Unknown697100%10.1%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)2114.3%50%0.82
Pop ($2–5)11114.3%9.1%0.34
Mid ($5–10)14342.9%21.4%1.59
Roughie (>$10)42228.6%4.8%0.87

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.