Ballarat Synthetic R5

14:10Manhari (Bm52)

1500mBenchmark 52Rail: TrueEarly preview · published 2 July 14:42 AEST — updated race morning

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Track

Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (2 July 14:42 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final

Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.

Early model — previewEarly predictions — will change with final scratchings, jockeys and track conditionEntropy3.56top 3

Ranked 1st

8. Lucky Compass

Neil Farley (7)

Ranked 2nd

1. Ex Machina

Lachlan King (6)

Ranked 3rd

5. Master Polanski

Jack Hill (13)

Predicted speed mapback → finish →

Backmarkers3

settle 11+

10Shasam(3)

6Blonde Suspect(9)

11Archdeacon(10)

Midfield6

settle 7–10

4Brillar(2)

3Ziggy Starcraft(5)

1Ex Machina(6)

7Sierra Blanca(8)

12Ovabent(12)

5Master Polanski(13)

On-pace6

settle 3–6

13Burning Sensation(1)

15Immortal One(4)

8Lucky Compass(7)

2King Alla(11)

9Final Quarter(14)

14Dark Harmony(15)

Leaders0

pushing for the lead

—

Historical overview

Across the 30 sampled runnings of 1500m at Ballarat Synthetic: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 12 of 30 winners (40.0% of winners, 14.3% strike, 0.86 A/E). No winner in this sample settled 11+ back. From the gates, Middle (5–9) — 12 of 30 winners (40.0% of winners, 9.5% strike, 0.83 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 8 from 9 (88.9% strike, 1.6 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 13.3% of winners.

Historical leans

Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
Middle (5–9) barriers lead the draw splits
Short-priced runners have historically held their market at this trip

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance

1500m · 30 races (30 winners)

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	99	11	36.7%	11.1%	0.83
Middle (5–9)	126	12	40%	9.5%	0.83
Wide (10+)	70	7	23.3%	10%	0.88

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	84	12	40%	14.3%	0.86
On-pace (4–6)	82	10	33.3%	12.2%	0.92
Midfield (7–10)	86	6	20%	7%	0.83
Backmarkers (11+)	23	0	0%	0%	0.00
Unknown	20	2	6.7%	10%	0.75

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	9	8	26.7%	88.9%	1.60
Pop ($2–5)	56	11	36.7%	19.6%	0.67
Mid ($5–10)	61	7	23.3%	11.5%	0.85
Roughie (>$10)	169	4	13.3%	2.4%	0.66