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← Gold CoastSaturday 4 July 2026

Gold Coast R3

13:15Grafton Cup July 16th Mdn Plate
1015mMaidenRail: +9mEarly preview · published 3 July 14:12 AEST — updated race morning
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Early mail — tomorrow's fields. Fields, barriers and stats published early (3 July 14:12 AEST). Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.
Early model rankings — previewearly predictions · not final
Early model predictions only. These WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updates — the final day's predictions and commentary are published race morning.
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy3.19top 3
Ranked 1st
3. Parading Gus
Micheal Hellyer (2)
Ranked 2nd
4. Starlightning
Bella Youngberry (1)
Ranked 3rd
1. Mongolian Spring
Bailey Wheeler (11)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
No data3
no recent settle
4 Starlightning(1)
10 Luck Of Grace(8)
9 Lili Anna(10)
Backmarkers2
settle 11+
17 Divinelle(3)
16 Carpet Ride(4)
Midfield5
settle 7–10
3 Parading Gus(2)
12 Kamigamo(6)
6 Emphatique(7)
14 Bang Its On(14)
11 Red Moon Rising(15)
On-pace3
settle 3–6
13 Shown The Door(5)
15 Gancedo(9)
2 Not Telling(12)
Leaders3
pushing for the lead
1 Mongolian Spring(11)
5 The Grand Duchy(13)
7 Gossamer Glow(16)

Historical overview

Across the 64 sampled runnings of 1015m at Gold Coast: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 38 of 64 winners (59.4% of winners, 21.1% strike, 1.18 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 38 of 64 winners (59.4% of winners, 15.3% strike, 0.89 A/E).

Narrowed to today's rail position (1015m · +9m ±1m, 10 races): Leaders (settle 1–3) — 6 of 10 winners (60.0% of winners, 20.0% strike, 1.18 A/E).

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 6 from 14 (42.9% strike, 0.71 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 14.1% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits
  • Favourites underperform their market share at this trip on this sample

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Full speed-map read and model picks arrive race morning, once final scratchings and track condition are known.

Distance stats

Distance
1015m · 64 races (64 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)2483859.4%15.3%0.89
Middle (5–9)2612437.5%9.2%0.77
Wide (10+)4023.1%5%0.56

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1803859.4%21.1%1.18
On-pace (4–6)1791625%8.9%0.62
Midfield (7–10)14369.4%4.2%0.41
Backmarkers (11+)800%0%0.00
Unknown3946.2%10.3%0.79

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)1469.4%42.9%0.71
Pop ($2–5)1393351.6%23.7%0.82
Mid ($5–10)1251625%12.8%0.95
Roughie (>$10)271914.1%3.3%0.74