HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← CastertonSunday 5 July 2026

Casterton R2

13:25Davis Blinds Hrdl (Bm115)
3500mHurdleRail: True
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 4 July 14:10 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Early model rankings — previewupdated race morning · not final
Early model — previewEarly predictions — these WILL MOST LIKELY change with final scratchings, jockey changes and track condition updatesEntropy2.15top 3
Ranked 1st
3. Ferago
Daniel Small (5)
Ranked 2nd
4. Golden Crusader
Steven Pateman (3)
Ranked 3rd
1. Point Nepean
Micheal Casey (4)
Predicted speed mapback → finish →
Backmarkers0
settle 11+
—
Midfield2
settle 7–10
5 Hula Beat(1)
3 Ferago(5)
On-pace1
settle 3–6
2 Bitcoin(2)
Leaders2
pushing for the lead
4 Golden Crusader(3)
1 Point Nepean(4)

Historical overview

Across the 9 sampled runnings of 3500m at Casterton: Leaders (settle 1–3) — 6 of 9 winners (66.7% of winners, 25.0% strike, 1.1 A/E). From the gates, Inside (1–4) — 5 of 9 winners (55.6% of winners, 15.2% strike, 0.82 A/E).

Today's going is not yet confirmed, so no going-specific split is shown — the broad sample above carries the read until race morning.

Market history at this trip: odds-on favourites are 1 from 4 (25.0% strike, 0.43 A/E); roughies (>$10) supply 11.1% of winners.

Historical leans

  • Leaders (settle 1–3) is the strongest settle band on the sample
  • Inside (1–4) barriers lead the draw splits

Deterministic data read — figures restated from this track and trip's sampled runnings, no interpretation applied. The full speed-map read and model picks follow race morning after final scratchings.

This overview is generated automatically from real race data by the HoofMetrics data engine — it is not AI-written. If you have feedback, email hello@hoofmetrics.com.Generated by HoofMetrics data engine (deterministic).

Distance stats

Distance
3500m · 9 races (9 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)33555.6%15.2%0.82
Middle (5–9)28444.4%14.3%0.94
Wide (10+)300%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)24666.7%25%1.10
On-pace (4–6)1400%0%0.00
Midfield (7–10)9111.1%11.1%1.41
Unknown17222.2%11.8%0.74

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)4111.1%25%0.43
Pop ($2–5)19555.6%26.3%0.88
Mid ($5–10)12222.2%16.7%1.34
Roughie (>$10)29111.1%3.4%0.83