Barcaldine R2

13:22Barcaldine Racing Club Hcp (C3)
1200mClass 3Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Barcaldine Racing Club Hcp (C3)a 1200m class 3 at Barcaldine, jumping at 13:22 on ground, rail true. 7 runners engaged.

At the trip

Barcaldine has staged 7 races at 1200m in our sample — too small to base a decision on.

  • Barrier draw: Wide (10+) wins the most races here — 4 of 7 (57.1% win share); Middle (5–9) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.25 (1 from 31).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 7–10 win the most races here — 2 of 7 each (28.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Roughie (>$10) wins the most races here — 3 of 7 (42.9% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.58).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 24 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Wide (10+) accounted for 4 of the 7 winners (4 from 19 runners, A/E 1.48) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Nikki Olzard: 24 from 103 (23.3%) in the last 90 days (13 of those in the last 30) — rides #1 Betta Than Presley here.
  • Jockey Kayla Barker: 6 from 27 (22.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #6 Tell Us Toll here.
  • Trainer H C Forster: 10 from 40 (25.0%) in the last 90 days — saddles #4 You Kay Squeeze here.
  • Trainer Toni Schofield: 17 from 87 (19.5%) in the last 90 days — saddles #3 Smashing Rosie here.
  • Trainer Bevan Johnson is 5 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (35.7% strike, A/E 2.46) and has #6 Tell Us Toll here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 7 races (7 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)26228.6%7.7%1.05
Middle (5–9)31114.3%3.2%0.25
Wide (10+)19457.1%21.1%1.48

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)15228.6%13.3%0.94
On-pace (4–6)15114.3%6.7%0.55
Midfield (7–10)19228.6%10.5%1.04
Backmarkers (11+)300%0%0.00
Unknown24228.6%8.3%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Pop ($2–5)19228.6%10.5%0.40
Mid ($5–10)13228.6%15.4%1.19
Roughie (>$10)44342.9%6.8%1.58