Barcaldine R6

15:43Thomas Foods International Hcp
1200mOpenRail: True
Races1234567

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Thomas Foods International Hcpa 1200m open at Barcaldine, jumping at 15:43 on ground, rail true. 13 runners engaged.

At the trip

Barcaldine has staged 7 races at 1200m in our sample — too small to base a decision on.

  • Barrier draw: Wide (10+) wins the most races here — 4 of 7 (57.1% win share); Middle (5–9) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.25 (1 from 31).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 7–10 win the most races here — 2 of 7 each (28.6% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Roughie (>$10) wins the most races here — 3 of 7 (42.9% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.58).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 24 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 7 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Wide (10+) accounted for 4 of the 7 winners (4 from 19 runners, A/E 1.48) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Nikki Olzard × H C Forster are 4 from 14 (28.6%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #9 I'm Zac here.
  • Jockey Robert Faehr: 13 from 81 (16.0%) in the last 90 days (7 of those in the last 30) — rides #4 Scorched Land here.
  • Jockey Kayla Barker: 6 from 27 (22.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #2 Magical Slipper here.
  • Trainer Toni Schofield: 17 from 87 (19.5%) in the last 90 days — saddles #5 Northumbria here.
  • Trainer Ms G Bell: 16 from 102 (15.7%) in the last 90 days — saddles #3 The Squire here.
  • Trainer Bevan Johnson is 5 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (35.7% strike, A/E 2.46) and has #1 Hurtle, #2 Magical Slipper, #4 Scorched Land here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 7 races (7 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)26228.6%7.7%1.05
Middle (5–9)31114.3%3.2%0.25
Wide (10+)19457.1%21.1%1.48

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)15228.6%13.3%0.94
On-pace (4–6)15114.3%6.7%0.55
Midfield (7–10)19228.6%10.5%1.04
Backmarkers (11+)300%0%0.00
Unknown24228.6%8.3%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Pop ($2–5)19228.6%10.5%0.40
Mid ($5–10)13228.6%15.4%1.19
Roughie (>$10)44342.9%6.8%1.58