Wellington R4

14:24J.R Richards & Sons (Bm66)
1700mBenchmark 66Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

J.R Richards & Sons (Bm66)a 1700m benchmark 66 at Wellington, jumping at 14:24 on ground, rail true. 11 runners engaged.

At the trip

Wellington has staged 5 races at 1700m in our sample — too small to base a decision on.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) and Middle (5–9) win the most races here — 2 of 5 each (40.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 3 of 5 (60.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 4 of 5 (80.0% win share); Roughie (>$10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 23).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Pop ($2–5) accounted for 4 of the 5 winners (4 from 15 runners, A/E 1.03) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Nick Palmer: 7 from 42 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — rides #3 Like Lukey here.
  • Trainer Ms J Clement: 22 from 114 (19.3%) in the last 90 days — saddles #1 Toulon Factor, #2 Delrico, #5 The Great Armada here.
  • Trainer Brett Thompson is 9 from 50 at today’s meeting profile (18.0% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #4 Egyptologist here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1700m · 5 races (5 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)20240%10%0.87
Middle (5–9)21240%9.5%0.63
Wide (10+)5120%20%1.60

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)15360%20%1.21
On-pace (4–6)15120%6.7%0.47
Midfield (7–10)13120%7.7%0.73
Backmarkers (11+)200%0%0.00
Unknown100%0%0.00

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Pop ($2–5)15480%26.7%1.03
Mid ($5–10)8120%12.5%0.94
Roughie (>$10)2300%0%0.00