Wellington R6

15:35Allendale Merino Stud (Bm66)
1100mBenchmark 66Rail: True
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 5 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

Allendale Merino Stud (Bm66)a 1100m benchmark 66 at Wellington, jumping at 15:35 on ground, rail true. 13 runners engaged.

At the trip

Wellington has staged 15 races at 1100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 8 of 15 (53.3% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.32 (1 from 44).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 10 of 15 (66.7% win share) — and beats its market price too (A/E 1.27).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 7 of 15 (46.7% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.57 (2 from 28).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 26 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 15 runnings — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Middle (5–9) again on top: A/E 1.02 (8 from 63).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.27 (10 from 39).
  • Market: read holds — Roughie (>$10) again on top: A/E 1.11 (4 from 99).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Izzy Neale: 8 from 46 (17.4%) in the last 30 days — rides #12 Gidgee Guy here.
  • Jockey Nick Palmer: 7 from 42 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — rides #3 Rothgate here.
  • Trainer N J Olive: 13 from 68 (19.1%) in the last 90 days — saddles #6 Triptolemus here.
  • Trainer M D Griffith: 10 from 58 (17.2%) in the last 90 days — saddles #1 Condone here.
  • Trainer Brett Thompson is 9 from 50 at today’s meeting profile (18.0% strike, A/E 1.45) and has #5 Cumnock, #8 Sorrento Palace, #13 Powderfinger here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1100m · 15 races (15 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)51640%11.8%0.82
Middle (5–9)63853.3%12.7%1.02
Wide (10+)4416.7%2.3%0.32

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)391066.7%25.6%1.27
On-pace (4–6)39320%7.7%0.88
Midfield (7–10)4400%0%0.00
Backmarkers (11+)1000%0%0.00
Unknown26213.3%7.7%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)5213.3%40%0.73
Pop ($2–5)26746.7%26.9%0.83
Mid ($5–10)28213.3%7.1%0.57
Roughie (>$10)99426.7%4%1.11