Otaki R1

10:42Harcourts Otaki Mdn
1600mMaidenRail: Out 5m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Harcourts Otaki Mdna 1600m maiden at Otaki, jumping at 10:42 on ground, rail out 5m. 13 runners engaged.

At the trip

Otaki has staged 32 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 14 of 32 (43.8% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Pace: no workable sample in this category.
  • Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 12 of 32 (37.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 349 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+5m ±1m) covers 10 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Inside (1–4) again on top: A/E 1.35 (6 from 38).
  • Pace: too little data within this cut to read.
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.06 (5 from 33).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jonathan Riddell: 5 from 26 (19.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #3 Boots To Fill here.
  • Jockey Jim Chung: 5 from 26 (19.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #7 Tukipo here.
  • Trainer S L Crawford: 7 from 42 (16.7%) in the last 90 days — saddles #8 Hollaback Girl here.
  • Jockey Amber Riddell is 7 from 44 at today’s meeting profile (15.9% strike, A/E 1.43) and has #8 Hollaback Girl here.
  • Jockey Floor Moerman is 2 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 1.37) and has #4 Brian here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 32 races (32 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1251443.8%11.2%1.01
Middle (5–9)1491237.5%8.1%0.74
Wide (10+)85618.8%7.1%0.74

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)300%0%0.00
On-pace (4–6)313.1%33.3%2.81
Midfield (7–10)400%0%0.00
Unknown3493196.9%8.9%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)113.1%100%1.80
Pop ($2–5)51928.1%17.6%0.62
Mid ($5–10)881237.5%13.6%0.99
Roughie (>$10)2191031.2%4.6%0.90

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.