Otaki R3

11:52The Tele Otaki Mdn
2100mMaidenRail: Out 5m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

The Tele Otaki Mdna 2100m maiden at Otaki, jumping at 11:52 on ground, rail out 5m. 10 runners engaged.

At the trip

Otaki has staged 16 races at 2100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 9 of 16 (56.2% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.00 (0 from 36).
  • Pace: no workable sample in this category.
  • Market: Mid ($5–10) wins the most races here — 6 of 16 (37.5% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 153 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+5m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 3 of the 5 winners (3 from 18 runners, A/E 1.41) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Together, Toni Davies × Peter & Trent Didham are 6 from 21 (28.6%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #1 Offertory here.
  • Jockey Jonathan Riddell: 5 from 26 (19.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #3 Ballinran here.
  • Jockey Amber Riddell is 7 from 44 at today’s meeting profile (15.9% strike, A/E 1.43) and has #6 Our Scrapper here.
  • Jockey Floor Moerman is 2 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 1.37) and has #4 Cajole here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
2100m · 16 races (16 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)63956.2%14.3%0.98
Middle (5–9)68743.8%10.3%0.99
Wide (10+)3600%0%0.00

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)300%0%0.00
On-pace (4–6)316.2%33.3%6.10
Midfield (7–10)500%0%0.00
Backmarkers (11+)300%0%0.00
Unknown1531593.8%9.8%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)100%0%0.00
Pop ($2–5)25531.2%20%0.69
Mid ($5–10)49637.5%12.2%0.90
Roughie (>$10)92531.2%5.4%1.10

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.