Otaki R2

11:17Jennian Homes Mdn
1200mMaidenRail: Out 5m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 9 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Jennian Homes Mdna 1200m maiden at Otaki, jumping at 11:17 on ground, rail out 5m. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Otaki has staged 29 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 14 of 29 (48.3% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.23 (5 from 35).
  • Pace: no workable sample in this category.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 15 of 29 (51.7% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.57 (6 from 73).
  • Data note: settling position is unknown for 249 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+5m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 3 of the 5 winners (3 from 22 runners, A/E 0.90) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Jim Chung: 5 from 26 (19.2%) in the last 30 days — rides #8 Elegant Elle here.
  • Jockey Craig Grylls: 24 from 126 (19.0%) in the last 90 days — rides #1 Yaldy Time here.
  • Jockey George Rooke is 5 from 11 at today’s meeting profile (45.5% strike, A/E 2.67) and has #7 Brutiful Lass here.
  • Trainer B R Lammas is 2 from 14 at today’s meeting profile (14.3% strike, A/E 2.26) and has #12 Star Donna here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1200m · 29 races (29 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1091034.5%9.2%0.65
Middle (5–9)1221448.3%11.5%0.92
Wide (10+)35517.2%14.3%1.23

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)600%0%0.00
On-pace (4–6)613.4%16.7%0.92
Midfield (7–10)513.4%20%3.57
Unknown2492793.1%10.8%0.84

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)526.9%40%0.68
Pop ($2–5)491551.7%30.6%1.08
Mid ($5–10)73620.7%8.2%0.57
Roughie (>$10)139620.7%4.3%0.83

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.