John Turkington Forestry Castletown Stakes — a 1200m listed at Otaki, jumping at 12:27 on — ground, rail out 5m. 10 runners engaged.
At the trip
Otaki has staged 29 races at 1200m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.
- Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 14 of 29 (48.3% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.23 (5 from 35).
- Pace: no workable sample in this category.
- Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 15 of 29 (51.7% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.57 (6 from 73).
- Data note: settling position is unknown for 249 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.
Rail effect
Grouping similar rail positions (+5m ±1m) covers only 5 runnings — too small to lean on.
- For the record: Middle (5–9) accounted for 3 of the 5 winners (3 from 22 runners, A/E 0.90) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.
Jockeys & trainers
- Together, Michael Mc Nab × Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson are 5 from 13 (38.5%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #1 Honour Roll here.
- Together, George Rooke × K A Pertab are 6 from 20 (30.0%) in the last 90 days — they combine with #6 O'baby here.
- Jockey Craig Grylls: 24 from 126 (19.0%) in the last 90 days — rides #7 Shamelia Kirk here.
- Trainer A W Pike: 5 from 29 (17.2%) in the last 30 days — saddles #4 Back Of The Bus here.