Doomben R4

13:38Graham Milligan (Bm78)
1600mBenchmark 78Rail: +0.5m
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Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Graham Milligan (Bm78)a 1600m benchmark 78 at Doomben, jumping at 13:38 on ground, rail +0.5m. 12 runners engaged.

At the trip

Doomben has staged 37 races at 1600m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 18 of 37 (48.6% win share); Wide (10+) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.34 (2 from 88).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 15 of 37 (40.5% win share); Settle position 11+ underperforms its market price — A/E 0.36 (1 from 56).
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 19 of 37 (51.4% win share); Mid ($5–10) underperforms its market price — A/E 0.54 (7 from 96).

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions (+0.5m ±1m) covers only 4 runnings — too small to lean on.

  • For the record: Settle position 1–3 accounted for 4 of the 4 winners (4 from 12 runners, A/E 1.66) in that limited data — colour, not signal; the overall numbers above carry more weight.

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Michael Rodd: 6 from 38 (15.8%) in the last 30 days — rides #10 Diana's Affair here.
  • Jockey Ben E Thompson: 46 from 300 (15.3%) in the last 90 days (15 of those in the last 30) — rides #14 Natoya here.
  • Trainer Darren P Bell: 6 from 39 (15.4%) in the last 90 days — saddles #7 Man Of The Town here.
  • Trainer Tony & Maddysen Sears: 13 from 85 (15.3%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — saddles #14 Natoya here.
  • Jockey Taylor Marshall is 3 from 32 at today’s meeting profile (9.4% strike, A/E 1.51) and has #12 Jemoma Alpilage here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 37 races (37 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)1421848.6%12.7%0.96
Middle (5–9)1641745.9%10.4%0.85
Wide (10+)8825.4%2.3%0.34

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)1111540.5%13.5%0.98
On-pace (4–6)1111232.4%10.8%0.80
Midfield (7–10)116924.3%7.8%0.78
Backmarkers (11+)5612.7%1.8%0.36

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)425.4%50%0.87
Pop ($2–5)681951.4%27.9%0.96
Mid ($5–10)96718.9%7.3%0.54
Roughie (>$10)226924.3%4%0.93

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.