Hawera R8

14:27Thank You Diane Pascoe (Bm65)

2100mBenchmark 65Rail: True

Races1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Track

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 10 July 14:13 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Thank You Diane Pascoe (Bm65) — a 2100m benchmark 65 at Hawera, jumping at 14:27 on — ground, rail true. 14 runners engaged.

At the trip

Hawera has staged 19 races at 2100m in our sample — a sample worth weighting.

Barrier draw: Middle (5–9) wins the most races here — 8 of 19 (42.1% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.20 (5 from 38).
Pace: Settle position 1–3 and Settle position 4–6 win the most races here — 4 of 19 each (21.1% win share); Settle position 7–10 underperforms its market price — A/E 0.39 (1 from 33).
Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 8 of 19 (42.1% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
Data note: settling position is unknown for 95 runners in this sample, which dilutes the pace numbers.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 14 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.35 (4 from 31).
Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.05 (4 from 27).
Market: read holds — Pop ($2–5) again on top: A/E 1.02 (6 from 21).

Jockeys & trainers

Jockey Craig Grylls: 24 from 124 (19.4%) in the last 90 days (5 of those in the last 30) — rides #2 Muscovado here.
Jockey Jonathan Riddell: 5 from 30 (16.7%) in the last 30 days — rides #6 Derryman here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance

2100m · 19 races (19 winners)

Barrier draw

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Inside (1–4)	70	6	31.6%	8.6%	0.62
Middle (5–9)	80	8	42.1%	10%	0.90
Wide (10+)	38	5	26.3%	13.2%	1.20

Settling position

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Leaders (1–3)	27	4	21.1%	14.8%	1.05
On-pace (4–6)	27	4	21.1%	14.8%	1.01
Midfield (7–10)	33	1	5.3%	3%	0.39
Backmarkers (11+)	6	0	0%	0%	0.00
Unknown	95	10	52.6%	10.5%	0.84

Market (SP)

	Runs	Wins	% Win	SR	A/E
Odds-on (≤$2)	2	1	5.3%	50%	0.92
Pop ($2–5)	30	8	42.1%	26.7%	0.92
Mid ($5–10)	57	7	36.8%	12.3%	0.88
Roughie (>$10)	99	3	15.8%	3%	0.61

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.