HoofMetricsdata · model · edge
← HamiltonSunday 12 July 2026

Hamilton R4

15:05Ray Sanders Mdn Hwt Plate
1600mMaidenRail: True
Race AnalysisStatistics
Races123456

Early previewTomorrow's fields, barriers and stats, published 11 July 14:08 AEST. Final scratchings, going, model picks and race commentary land race morning (~10am AEST) — runners shown here may scratch before racing.

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.

Ray Sanders Mdn Hwt Plate — a 1600m maiden at Hamilton, jumping at 15:05 on — ground, rail true. 9 runners engaged.

At the trip

Hamilton has staged 12 races at 1600m in our sample — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: Inside (1–4) wins the most races here — 7 of 12 (58.3% win share); the value band has been Wide (10+) — A/E 1.28 (2 from 25).
  • Pace: Settle position 1–3 wins the most races here — 6 of 12 (50.0% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.
  • Market: Pop ($2–5) wins the most races here — 5 of 12 (41.7% win share); no band meaningfully beats its market price.

Rail effect

Grouping similar rail positions covers 12 runnings — indicative rather than conclusive.

  • Barrier draw: read holds — Wide (10+) again on top: A/E 1.28 (2 from 25).
  • Pace: read holds — Settle position 1–3 again on top: A/E 1.09 (6 from 33).
  • Market: read holds — Mid ($5–10) again on top: A/E 1.15 (4 from 25).

Jockeys & trainers

  • Jockey Dean Parker: 8 from 33 (24.2%) in the last 90 days — rides #4 Up For A Flag here.

A/E compares actual winners with market-expected winners — above 1.00 means that group has outperformed its market price historically. Settling positions we can’t determine are shown as “Unknown” in the tables below but are excluded from this read. Full tables below.

Distance stats

Distance
1600m · 12 races (12 winners)

Barrier draw

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Inside (1–4)46758.3%15.2%0.99
Middle (5–9)51325%5.9%0.49
Wide (10+)25216.7%8%1.28

Settling position

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Leaders (1–3)33650%18.2%1.09
On-pace (4–6)32325%9.4%0.69
Midfield (7–10)36216.7%5.6%0.69
Backmarkers (11+)700%0%0.00
Unknown1418.3%7.1%0.81

Market (SP)

RunsWins% WinSRA/E
Odds-on (≤$2)118.3%100%1.35
Pop ($2–5)27541.7%18.5%0.62
Mid ($5–10)25433.3%16%1.15
Roughie (>$10)69216.7%2.9%0.82

For model selections and full runner analysis, go to the Race Analysis page.